PERIKATAN Nasional’s (PN) component party Gerakan will be fighting a losing battle in the four states it has decided to contest in the state elections, political analysts said.

Gerakan lost Penang in 2008 and the last time the party won seats was in the 2013 general election when it secured two state seats in Sabah and one in Johor. In 2014, Gerakan’s then president, Mah Siew Keong, defeated DAP’s Dyana Sofia in the Teluk Intan by-election.

Analysts said the party, which has decided to contest in 36 constituencies, will face an uphill task to pull in the non-Malay votes.

Gerakan president Dominic Lau has confirmed that the party will contest 19 seats in Penang, eight in Selangor, six in Negri Sembilan and three in Kedah.

Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said based on past election records, Gerakan will find it difficult to compete with DAP or PKR, which are part of the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition.

“The results of previous elections – the Malacca and Johor state polls and last year’s general election – showed that Gerakan was still stuck at looking for a formula to attract voters or bring added value to PN,” Hisommudin told The Malaysian Insight.

The think tank director expects Gerakan’s poor showing to continue in the August 12 elections as well.

He said Gerakan’s failure will be detrimental to PN’s chances of winning in certain states.

“Looking at the current scenario, I don’t think Gerakan will be able to compete in Penang, Selangor, Kedah and Negri Sembilan,” he said.

“These seats will cause PN to be affected because the possibility of Gerakan winning is very slim.”

Hisommudin said Gerakan will find it extremely tough to unseat DAP in Penang, a state it has governed for nearly four decades.

“I believe the support of non-Malay voters will continue to remain with PH and DAP,” he said.

No change to Gerakan’s fate

International Islamic University Malaysia’s Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar said Gerakan will not give DAP any sleepless nights in Penang.

“Gerakan has not recovered since it lost Penang in 2008,” the political science assistant professor said.

“Even with support from PAS and Bersatu, it won’t be able to unseat DAP in Penang.

“It lacks visionary leadership and is seen as a junior partner in PN.”

Tunku Mohar said Gerakan’s chances outside Penang are even more dreadful, unless PAS or Bersatu decides to give it safe Malay-majority seats to contest.

He, however, said this is unlikely to happen.

Tunku Mohar said Gerakan will not bring the non-Malay votes to PN.

“Most non-Malays would vote PH, and to a lesser extent, Barisan Nasional,” he said.

University of Tasmania’s James Chin also categorically dismissed Gerakan’s chances in the state elections.

The professor of Asian Studies said all the seats that are given to Gerakan are unwinnable.

He said Gerakan is just giving a cover to PAS and Bersatu to make PN look multiracial.

“They, however, have no power in PN to moderate PAS or Bersatu,” he said.

The Election Commission last week announced that the polls for Selangor, Penang, Negri Sembilan, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu will be held simultaneously on August 12.

Nomination day is on July 29 while early voting is on August 8.

A total of 245 seats will be contested – 32 in Terengganu, 36 each in Kedah and Negri Sembilan, 40 in Penang, 45 in Kelantan and 56 in Selangor. – July 12, 2023.