THE pact between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) will give them an edge over the opposition to defend their administrative position in Negri Sembilan, said analysts. 

The blocs’ performance in the general election (GE), where they won all eight parliamentary seats (BN won five, PH won three), augurs well for them to continue leading the state.

In the 2018 GE, out of 36 state seats, PH won 20 seats (DAP won 11, PKR won six, Amanah won three) while BN secured 16 seats (Umno won 15, MIC won one). 

Some analysts think Perikatan Nasional (PN) is facing a formidable task in its effort to dominate Negri Sembilan, although leaders of its components – Bersatu, PAS and Gerakan – are confident the bloc can emerge victorious. 

UiTM Institution of Malay Rulers chair fellow Mujibu Abd Muis said on paper, PH-BN have the advantage to continue dominating Negri Sembilan, adding it is the only state in which PN failed to win parliamentary seats. 

“This PH-BN cooperation shows a more consolidated front based on several factors, including BN’s performance in GE15 (2022), where it managed to recapture the Tampin and Kuala Pilah parliamentary seats, and PH’s victory, especially in urban areas,” he told Bernama.

He said caretaker menteri besar Aminuddin Harun (from PKR) and his predecessor Mohamad Hasan’s (from Umno) leadership was vital in winning over voters.

“Tok Mat (Mohamad Hasan) and Datuk Aminuddin are two strong figures. If the cooperation can be translated well towards efforts to maintain the existing votes, then there is no problem for the (PH-BN) pact to win this state,” he said, adding that both blocs must intensify efforts to maintain voter support to avoid protest voting.

USM political analyst Assoc Prof Sivamurugan Pandian said PH-BN’s seat distribution should be done carefully to boost the pact’s chances in the polls.

“Politics in Negri Sembilan is quite different because there is no opposition, compared with Penang, Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah. In addition, the potential candidates will not only represent their respective parties, but will move as a coalition to convince voters.

“PH and BN must also ensure the issues they are championing are in line with the manifesto that reflects their unity, as the (partnership) was formed by the unity government,” he said.

He said PH and BN must intensify “political marketing” on social media to quickly and easily woo voters in real time, especially youth, without abandoning conventional strategies.

Azmi Hassan, political analyst at Nusantara Academy of Strategic Research, said although the odds are in favour of PH-BN, the two blocs cannot take lightly the challenge posed by their opponent.

“Based on the results of GE15, it is true the opposition did not win seats here (Negri Sembilan), but the political scenario has slightly changed due to several issues played up by the opponent. It should be taken into consideration by PH and BN if they want to win in the state polls,” he said.

The Negri Sembilan assembly was dissolved today. – Bernama, July 1, 2023.