PERIKATAN Nasional (PN) leaders expect the coalition to put up a good fight in the state elections, but political analysts said the so-called “green wave” will run out of steam.

The leaders hope the green wave, an upsurge in Malay votes which led PN to chalk up massive gains in the general election, will continue in the Selangor and Negri Sembilan polls.

However, several PN leaders have since been charged with corruption while the bank account of Bersatu has been frozen over suspicious funding.

Bersatu supreme council member Mohd Rafiq Mohd Abdullah admited these could be a problem in the state elections.

Bersatu relies solely on public donations for its campaign, he told The Malaysian Insight.

“Our account was frozen and that interferes (with campaign efforts). We don’t have a budget; we rely on donations from the people but we are confident we will be able to cope,” Bersatu Sungai Buloh chairman said.

“These actions by the authorities will not stop the green wave. We were also surprised by PN’s success on social media.”

He denied claims PN’s success on social media was the result of paid campaigns.

“That is what is happening on the ground; we get free promotion for PN. The people on social media are ordinary people, not leaders,” said Rafiq.

He believes the failure of BN and PH to reach agreement on seat negotiations will cause three-cornered clashes and give PN the advantage.

“We want only 29 seats (in Selangor), a simple majority to form a government. If we get more, that’s a bonus. 

“I am confident that we will see three-cornered-fights beween them (PH and BN). That is what will happen, three-cornered-contests, if they fail to reach an agreement.

“That will give PN an easy victory in Selangor.”

PN is aiming for 33 of the 56 seats in Selangor and 21 of the 36 seats in Negri Sembilan. The targeted seats have 60-80% Malay voters.

Last year, it won the five parliamentary seats of Sabak Bernam, Sungai Besar, Hulu Selangor, Tanjong Karang, Kapar, and Kuala Langat in Selangor.

It is now eyeing the Selangor state seats of Batang Kali, Permatang, Meru, Hulu Bernam, Sementa, Selat Klang, Sijangkang, Morib, Sungai Air Tawar, Sabak, Sungai Panjang and Sungai Burung.

Malay voters make more than 70% of the voters in Gombak Setia, Batu Tiga, Sijangkang, Paya Jaras, Kota Anggerik, and Dengkil. In Jeram, Kuang and Sungai Ramal, the group constitutes 80% of the votes.

PH holds 40 state seats in Selangor and 20 in Negri Sembilan.

Ebb tide for PN

Ilham Center’s chief executive director Hisomuddin Bakar, however, said the wave of support for PN is on the wane.

He said the ruling government also usually has the advantage in an election because it has more resources to campaign.

However, any success stories of the government are usually drowned in religious and racial rhetoric from the opposition, he added.

“Because they have resources, they have something to sell,” he said.

During the 2022 general election campaign, Perikatan Nasional succcessfully played up racial and religious sensitivities of the Malays.

“That played louder than the government’s narrative of success,” said Hisomuddin.

Hisomuddin said the prosecution of PN chairman Muhyiddin Yassin and the freezing of Bersatu’s accounts are expected to stop the green wave.

“It’s a little different this time because their leadership has been charged and their accounts are frozen so they lack resources.

“TikTok used to be completely the domain of PN, but after the general election the others became aware that segments of voters had been neglected so everyone raced to push their message here.

“Now there is competition in the space that PN used to lead. The government party has started to challenge and dominate.

“The Malay vote is still up for grabs.” – April 12, 2023.