PERIKATAN Nasional (PN) leaders believe voter sentiment, which saw it pick up a sizeable number of parliamentary seats in the 15th general election, will lead it to victory in Selangor. 

PAS secretary Roslan Shahir Mohd Shahir is confident PN will be able to contest 33 out of 56 state seats.

All seats, including the seven already in the hands of PN, have at least 60% Malay voters, he said.

He told The Malaysian Insight the trend in the last general election showed votes in the seat were clearly in favour of PN.

“All 43 parliamentary seats PAS won had 60% or more Malay voters, except for Kuala Langat, which has 58% Malay voters.

“We can win in Kuala Langat, this time in the area where there are 60% Malay voters,” he said.

PN won six parliamentary seats in Selangor in the last general election – Sabak Bernam, Sungai Besar, Tanjung Karang, Hulu Selangor, Kapar and Kuala Langat. 

The victory gave new confidence to the coalition to capture more state seats in the parliamentary constituencies it dominated in the general election last November, he said. 

“Basically before we had no seats in Selangor for parliament. But in the last general election PAS won three, Bersatu won three. PN won six seats from nothing.”

He gave the example of the state seat in the Kuala Langat parliamentary constituency, won by Selangor PAS commissioner Ahmad Yunus Hairi after defeating five other candidates. 

It showed PN is able to dominate the votes in the Morib and Sijangkang state constituencies.

“We expect the Malay vote shift in GE15 will remain. But there are also many other factors, among them the trend of young people (supporting PN) plus the shift of Malay votes strengthens our expectations,” he said.

He also expects Barisan Nasional (BN) to face challenges in five state seats, after the coalition lost all the parliamentary seats in Selangor in the  November 19 polls. 

“Our strength could even attract other party incumbents to hop to our side. For instance, they can leave Umno to contest on a PAS ticket. Representatives from Sungai Air Tawar, Sungai Panjang, those are all young assemblymen. 

“If they follow the trend of parliamentary seats, they will all lose. 

“We prefer young Malays. If you want, please come with us.”

The other three BN-held state seats are Semenyih, Sungai Burung, and Hulu Bernam. 

Another PN leader from Bersatu, Muhammad Faiz Na’aman, expects the party to helm the state administration in Selangor if their coalition takes over. 

The member of Bersatu’s supreme council said this in anticipation his party would gain an advantage in seat distribution negotiations between the coalitions.

“We think Selangor should lean towards Bersatu, the demographics are plural. So, God willing, if PN wins, Selangor should be led by Bersatu. 

“PAS already has Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah. We consider Selangor and Negri Sembilan our target, they should be led by Bersatu.

“If you follow the logic, (there are more Bersatu seats) but it may not be much different,” he said, adding that PN is also currently evaluating candidates for the state polls.

He admitted that the plural composition of Selangor’s electorate made it difficult to predict, but PN would still prevail due to the relationship between BN and Pakatan Harapan (PH). 

“We don’t look down on our rivals even though there is a split in Umno in Selangor. Selangor is a state that is quite difficult to contest in. 

“But there is an advantage when the grassroots of these two coalitions are not compatible. Like DAP and Umno supporters, they are definitely going to get confused, but that’s their problem. 

“On our side there is no confusion. We support each candidate. As long as PN grassroots are not confused, there is no problem,” he said. 

He also hoped the sentiment of voters from outside Selangor will help PN to win. 

“We are confident in the majority of Malays coming from outside Selangor, or those in Selangor. They can play a significant role in the state elections,” he said. 

Analysts also see the target of 30 seats as reasonable for PN, owing to the Malay support for them.

Ilham Center executive director Hisommudin Bakar expects PN to be able to control between 18 and 20 state seats. 

“So what that means is if they set a target of 30 seats, that is a reasonable number, especially for seats with a dense Malay composition, that’s what PH has to pay attention to,” he said.

It is also able to threaten the position of the PH government, he said. 

“The current government should take a serious look at PN’s ability to seize seats, which may send a strong opposition to the Selangor assembly.” 

Among other things, Hisommudin said, the rise in the number of voters in the electoral roll will also be a key factor in the coming state elections.

“The monthly increase in voters cannot be taken lightly,” he said. 

In addition, question marks remain over the compatibility of the election machinery and voters of BN and PH. 

“It will be interesting to see how PH and BN discuss and resolve the distribution of seats and convince their respective voters to support each other.” 

The ability of voters to cast their ballots for the other coalition must be seen, he said. 

“This has not been tested in any general election. The coming state elections will test the pairing of new alliances, which may become a new benchmark in the national political arena.” – March 6, 2023.