THE forthcoming state elections in six peninsular states will be a political wind vane for embattled Umno, political analysts told The Malaysian Insight.

They said the elections will show if the Malay nationalist party – which recently purged leaders critical of party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi – still has support.

For 60 years, Umno has dominated the Malay vote but recently support has swung to the Islamists in PAS and Umno splinter Bersatu.

Analysts added that the purge could further whittle whatever support Umno might have left.

Penang, Selangor, Negri Sembilan, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu did not hold state elections in conjunction with November’s general election, so must do so by September.

Merdeka Centre research officer Ted Lee said the election showed that Umno is no longer the party of choice for the Malays.

“Now it’s Perikatan Nasional (PN),” Lee said of the opposition coalition, in which the two dominant partners are the Malay-Muslim parties PAS and Bersatu.

“PN won 55% of the Malay votes in the last general election, so the question on everyone’s lips right now is: will Umno sink further into this quagmire of its own making or resurrect from the ashes like a phoenix.”

Lee said it is interesting to keep tabs on whether the Malays – who continued to stay loyal to Umno in the general election – will still support their party, which has since formed a unity government with arch nemesis Pakatan Harapan (PH).

“It will be interesting to see what Umno will do to prevent these supporters from fleeing.”

Umno expelled party stalwart Annuar Musa, the minister of communications and multimedia in the previous BN government shortly before the election.

Party veterans, Arau MP Shahidan Kassim and former Umno Selangor chief Noh Omar, were also axed recently.

Lee said these ejections caused some damage to the party, but the most destructive was the expulsion of popular figure Khairy Jamaluddin, the former Rembau MP and health minister.

Umno also suspended several members, the most prominent among them is Hishammuddin Hussein, who must spend six years in political exile.

Lee said Umno, which has yet to recover from its battering in November, will find it difficult to recover lost support “in the short term”.

He said if the election is any yardstick “obviously PAS will win big in the three northern Malay-majority states” of Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.

“It will be very difficult for Umno to re-establish itself there.”

Hitting rock bottom

Analyst Cheah See Kian said, while he understood why Umno had purged itself of dissenters, the decision had put the party on the back foot, adding that it exposed cracks at the wrong time.

“The state elections are just round the corner and there’s just not enough time for Umno to pick itself up after the double blow of the defeat in the general election and the party purge.”

Cheah added that the latter had caused much unrest in the party.

“It will put Umno at a great disadvantage and will impact its future strategy.

“The task ahead for Umno is huge and it’s not easy for it to return to power in those states in the coming elections.

“If it again fails to make the breakthrough in PH-controlled Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan, the big question is: “where is Umno heading next?”

“The east coast is definitely a sea of green,” Cheah said, alluding to PAS’s signature colour.

Meanwhile, prominent social and political activist Vincent Thock said Umno had hit rock bottom.

“There’s nothing left to be split. It is weak now.

“If it continues to disintegrate, it will lose whatever power it has left.

“That’s why it is now supporting the stability of the unity government.”

Thock said Umno will be further split “if the unity government becomes unstable”, such as Sabah Sarawak parties pulling out of the unity government.

Thock said analysts are looking for whether Umno’s demise will benefit PN to any great extent.

“The state elections will be a very important battle, which will determine whether the green wave of the PN will advance further.

“If the results favour the PH unity government, then it will further consolidate” Anwar’s administration.

“If not, we could probably see a repeat of 2020, and the downfall of former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad and the PH government.”

In the run-up to the Sheraton Move of March 2020, the PH government’s popularity was tested after losing several by-elections.

“That coalition finally buckled and collapsed.”

Thock said for Umno to have any chance at the elections, Anwar’s unity government must prove it is performing, there are results it must secure in the next few months.

“They must implement reforms as soon as possible and, in the shortest possible time, bring back the lost Malay votes.” – February 10, 2023.