PAKATAN Harapan (PH) may retain Penang and Selangor while Perikatan Nasional (PN) would hold on to PAS-led states of Kelantan and Terengganu when the state elections are called, political experts said.

The pundits, however, believed that the fight to win Negri Sembilan and Kedah will be the main draw in the state elections, with Barisan Nasional (BN) also in the fray.

Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said it was highly likely that PH could retain Selangor and Penang because of their record in the states as well as their support there.

“Selangor and Penang are safe states for PH but in Negri Sembilan, BN is strong, especially in the rural areas,” Mazlan told The Malaysian Insight.

He, however, believes that if PH and BN work together and have an electoral pact, they could have a better opportunity of retaining Negri Sembilan and even winning Kedah.

“When PH and BN combine, they have the advantage. Together, they can win and PH might be able to retain Negri Sembilan.

“Likewise, the chances in Kedah are also 50-50. Perhaps, the PH and BN combo, if any, could win Kedah too,” Mazlan added.

International Islamic University of Malaysia’s Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar also echoed Mazlan’s views, saying PH has a better chance retaining Penang and Selangor.

“Of the three states, I think the best bet is Penang and I think PH also has a good chance in Selangor since it became a PKR and DAP stronghold.

“PH still has the upper hand in Negri Sembilan but this depends a lot on whether it can establish a coalition or electoral pact with BN.

“In Kedah, based on the 15th general election, PN still has a big advantage,“ Tunku Mohar said.

University of Tasmania’s Professor of Asian Studies James Chin was also on the same page on this matter.

“Obviously, when you talk about Penang and Selangor, these are the two safest states for PH,” he said.

Last Saturday, following a PH presidential council meeting, PKR secretary-general Saifuddin Nasution Ismail said that PH’s priority is to retain its “bastion states” while taking on the role of a strong opposition in Terengganu and Kelantan.

PH governs Selangor and Penang, both won in 2008, and Negri Sembilan, which it took over in 2018.

Saifuddin also said PH has an equal opportunity to win Kedah.

He, however, did not disclose further details, including talks about potentially cooperating with BN for the state elections.

PH and BN were seen working together in the Padang Serai election, when BN’s candidate for the parliamentary seat, C. Sivarraajh, made way for PKR’s candidate Mohamad Sofee Razak.

The election also saw BN and PH leaders, who used to be archrivals, sharing the same stage to campaign for the candidate, which Sofee eventually lost to PN’s Azman Nasrudin by a 16,206 majority.

Will the green wave persist?

PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang had said he was confident that the “green wave” witnessed in the November 19 general election will continue in the upcoming state elections.

Mazlan was of the view that the voting pattern would not change despite Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim leading a unity government.

He predicted that the “green wave” will continue for some time given that the Malays are now leaning towards PN.

“PH doesn’t stand a chance of winning Kelantan and Terengganu because we saw in GE15 the voting pattern where PN got majority support here, especially the Malays.

“This pattern is unlikely to change within these few months.

“Support for PN will gain traction and they might have an upper hand,” he said.

Mazlan, however, said the green wave can be weakened if the unity government performs well, improves the economy and brings in good reforms.

Chin, on the other hand, said that the six state elections would be the best time to understand voter sentiments, especially those who are supporting the green wave.

He said it is to understand if there was actual support for PN or if it was a rejection of BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who is now the deputy prime minister.

“The main point is that people are using the six state elections to confirm whether the green wave is real.

“It is to confirm whether the rural Malays voted for PN, whether they really voted for PAS or it was anti-Zahid votes.

“If these were anti-Zahid votes, then we might see a different voting pattern this time, now that Zahid is part of the government. Everything has changed again,” Chin said.

He still believed that PAS would be untouchable in Kelantan and Terengganu, but Negri Sembilan and Kedah are up for grabs.

“It is very likely that PAS will retain Kelantan and Terengganu. For Negri Sembilan and Kedah, it is fair game,” he said.

Chin said that if PAS obtained encouraging results in the state elections, there would be permanent realignment of Malay votes.

He said that Umno would be the biggest loser here.

“If PAS does very well again – retaining Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu and making major inroads in Penang and Selangor – then the important thing to note here is that we are seeing a permanent realignment of Malay votes.

“The first 60 years of independence, the rural Malays were practically divided between PAS and Umno and Umno always had the upper hand, with the exception of Kelantan and Terengganu and maybe Perlis.

But in all the other states, Umno always had the upper hand on the rural Malay votes.

“So, if the rural Malay votes go to PAS this time, then that is what I mean as permanent realignment, where the majority of the Malay voters are more conservative,” Chin said.

Six states – Selangor, Negri Sembilan, Penang, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu – decided not to dissolve their state assemblies and hold their polls simultaneously with the general election.  

Only Pahang, Perak and Perlis held their polls concurrently with the national polls.

Sabah, Malacca, Johor and Sarawak had already held state polls prior to the general election.  

The six states will need to call for elections by September. – January 11, 2023.