BN foresees not tsunami but landslide victory in GE14

The Malaysian Insight The Malaysian Insight Updated 6 years ago · Published on 10 Mar 2018 7:00AM · 6 Comments

Rural folk are less exposed to new information and are more likely to support Barisan Nasional. – The Malaysian Insight file pic, April 20, 2017.

IN the final weeks before the general election, Barisan Nasional (BN), buoyed by signs of vote splitting and a return of voters to its side, is confident of not only a win at the polls, but of regaining the super-majority it lost in 2008.

Prime Minister Najib Razak, who is seeking his second mandate as BN chairman, this week told members of the ruling coalition that Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) prediction of a Malay tsunami for the opposition at the polls was just talk.

“There won’t be a Malay tsunami. In fact there won’t even be a Chinese tsunami – that’s what he (Najib) told the pre-council meeting last weekend before the Parliament session,” a BN insider told The Malaysian Insight.

“We are looking at getting back a two-thirds majority without any of these so-called tsunamis.” 

BN holds 131 federal seats, 17 seats short of the 148, or two-thirds, needed for a super-majority government that is able to rewrite and pass laws with little opposition.

A tidal wave of Chinese votes for the opposition in 2008 had brought the ruling coalition’s 91% parliamentary majority to an end – a rare loss that had happened only once before in 1969.

The following year, then prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi stepped down to make way for Najib.

In 2013, Najib did not only fail to win back BN’s lost super-majority; he also lost the  popular vote, to the chagrin of the coalition and his mentor  Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

Najib had called the upsurge of Chinese votes for the opposition a “Chinese tsunami”.

Dr Mahathir withdrew support for Najib in 2014 and left Umno in 2016 to found Bersatu, which he now chairs. The party is currently at risk of de-registration over its failure to furnish the Registrar of Societies with documents related to its AGM.

BN insiders point to the disarray within the opposition pact as another sign the ruling party will win big in the 14th general election that is widely speculated to be held late April. The government’s mandate expires in June and it must call elections within 60 days after the expiry.

“The reality is, the opposition is in disarray. They are bickering for seats and are not united (and are even) without a coalition or a common logo.

“The two (component) parties Bersatu and Amanah are not well known to the people. And the main thing is, PAS is not with them,” said a senior Umno leader, referring to the Islamist party’s decision to form another pact to contest in GE14.

PAS is expected to field candidates in 130 federal seats to keep its members and supporters from voting for either PH or BN. 

Essentially, PAS would be third party and spoiler which would cause vote splitting, said the BN source.

Polls commissioned by Putrajaya show BN has at least 145 seats in the bag and that only a little push was needed to win a super-majority government.

Independent researchers say BN can win as many as 155 seats, especially in view of the Election Commission’s redelineation – an exercise that many believe favours the ruling government.

“All the opposition has is Dr Mahathir Mohamad but he is a divisive figure to most voters. The Chinese don’t trust him and they will either vote for us or not vote at all. The Malays know only BN and Umno can take care of their interests,” an Umno strategist told The Malaysian Insight.

Dr Mahathir is the PH chairman and the prime minister designate.

“BN just needs to work hard and make sure its supporters come out to  vote. The opposition is indisarray and their votes are split,” he said, dismissing the PH manifesto as unconvincing to voters. – March 10, 2018

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Comments

  • Its spin-doctoring if they say they can predict a super majority..The big data points do not point to that. The Crowds at PH rally gets bigger when Mahathir shows up, its unprecedented in Malay heartland. Hadi's PAS is a stubborn minority. the no 1. problem and the cheating with Redelineation and other fraud makes any change a double-edge sword. The Mahathir-Bersatu factor can negate the Hadi's PAS and Redelineation exercise. in urban area and some rural area. In the deeep rural area, its where the difference lie and UMNO/BN with Hadi's PAS has the advantage. But super-majority no way.

    Posted 6 years ago by Bigjoe Lam · Reply

  • I still remember another INDON ...a dentist ... claiming ZERO OPPOSITION....
    and he got SAIFOOLED ... AND THROWN OUT ...and eventually jailed ...

    Posted 6 years ago by Ramamurthi ram · Reply

  • I still remember another INDON ...a dentist ... claiming ZERO OPPOSITION....
    and he got SAIFOOLED ... AND THROWN OUT ...and eventually jailed ...

    Posted 6 years ago by Ramamurthi ram · Reply

  • after massive cheating no wonder la

    Posted 6 years ago by Leslie Chan · Reply

  • Just like MO1 clumsily steal and put money in AmBank account due to overconfidence, arrogance and false stats from fake advisers, this GE14 prediction will be no different.

    Posted 6 years ago by Kuasa Rakyat · Reply

  • The only way to win big is disqualifying your opponent..

    Posted 6 years ago by Saf S · Reply