SHAHRIR Abdul Samad is synonymous with Johor Baru, a constituency which he has held since 2004 despite declining margins of victory in the past two general elections.

Although popular in the urban seat, the Felda chairman is now looking at the possibility of defeat in the next elections, if coffee shop chatter is to be believed.

A recent survey in Johor revealed that half of those polled were not satisfied with the federal government and those interviewed by The Malaysian Insight said this may be Shahrir’s downfall at the 14^th general election, despite his popularity.

Although Shahrir has had a chequered history with Umno – getting sacked in 1986 during a party crisis and dropped as a candidate in three elections (1990, 1995 and 1999), he has always found his foot in JB. 

After the sacking in 1986, Shahrir contested as an independent in a 1988 Johor Baru by-election and won by an even bigger margin (64.06%) compared with the 1986 elections. 

When he returned as a Barisan Nasional candidate in 2004, Shahrir regained the seat with 88.13% of the votes. 

But following the opposition’s breakthrough in 2008, he has faced a declining margin of victory – 70.8% in 2008 and 56.68% in 2013. 

Out of 13 state capitals, Johor Baru and Kangar are the only two that have eluded the opposition throughout the history of Malaysian general elections.

Well known “heavyweigt”

Opposition state lawmaker Chen Kah Eng (Stulang) thinks Shahrir will have a tough battle on his hands as more than half of Johoreans said in a January survey they were dissatisfied with the federal government.

“He’s been here for a long time and is well known,” said Chen, whose Stulang state seat falls under the JB federal constituency. Larkin is the other state seat in the constituency.

“But his winning margin is sure to drop further as dissatisfaction with the federal government continues to rise. His support for Prime Minister Najib Razak will cause him to lose more support,” said the first-term lawmaker.

Voters at two polling stations – Bandar Baru Uda and Kg Melayu Majidee – who supported Shahrir 71% and 82.4% respectively in the last elections expect the going to be tough for Shahrir this time round.

“It’s going to be hard for Shahrir,” said retired banker A. Shaari, who lives in Bandar Baru Uda.

“I will continue to vote for him but he’s going to be weighed down by national issues.”

At Kg Melayu Majidee, both Ahmade Mohd Din, 51, and Abdul Wahab Abdullah, 79, who used to be Umno members, said they won’t be backing the 68-year-old Shahrir any more.

“Shahrir is someone I would call a friend. But I cannot vote for him any more. A vote for him is a vote for the incumbent prime minister,” said Ahmade.

The former taxi driver said although Kg Melayu Majidee has been a solid vote bank for Umno in JB, they still have land ownership issues.

“There are about 500 houses here but more than three-quarters are classified as squatters although we all moved in around the same time in the 1960s. And while Umno has been in this seat forever, they cannot resolve the land issue.

“Partly because the land here is expensive as it is the last Malay kampung located 15 minutes from the city centre,” he said.

Former Umno Stulang Baru branch secretary Wahab said the candidate is not the problem.

“It doesn’t matter who Umno puts here any more as I have stopped following them ever since their ideology has changed,” said the retired navy personnel who joined Umno in 1956.

Not too confident

Shahrir did not seem too confident when asked about his chances on defending the seat.

“Hopefully, JB will survive. The Malay voters used to be 50% but is now 53% and so it doesn’t look like DAP has moved their voters from Gelang Patah.

“I believe they are targeting Tebrau and Pasir Gudang,” Shahrir told The Malaysian Insight.

Shahrir said GE14 will rely heavily on voter turnout.

“The Chinese turnout last elections were high. So, let’s see how they do in the next elections.”

The six-term MP, however, is confident that his service record will keep him in good stead.

“Our momentum is getting better,” said the Felda chairman.

In the Pakatan Harapan seat negotiations, JB will be contested by PKR, which has yet to announce its candidate.

During the last elections, JB had 96,321 registered voters with 51% Malays, Chinese (43%) and Indians (5%).

JB is one of four urban seats in the greater Johor Baru area. The other federal seats are Pasir Gudang (BN), Pulai (BN) and Gelang Patah (DAP). – March 9, 2018.