WHICH way the Malay vote will swing is still up in the air despite polls showing hesitant rural support for Pakatan Harapan, said political analyst turned politician Wan Saiful Wan Jan.

Wan Saiful, who left think tank Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (IDEAS), to join Bersatu, said opinion polls, even those he had a hand in conducting, could not predict with certainty the outcome of the elections.

In January, Singapore’s Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute published the results of a 2017 phone survey of Malay respondents in Johor, which found that 85% of Johor Malays were suspicious of DAP and saw a vote for Bersatu as a vote for DAP as they were in the same coalition. 

“I spent two weeks in Felda areas. They feel that if they say the wrong thing about Umno to the wrong person, there would be consequences,” Wan Saiful told a forum organised by BFM in Petaling Jaya, last night. 

Wan Saiful said Malay voters he encountered criss-crossing the Felda settlements exhibited “fear” of being discriminated against or ostracised for airing critical views of the ruling Malay party.

“This sentiment is to the extent that if they feel that if they say something that is not within the Umno narrative, they fear they will not invited to kenduri or to the surau.  

“The fear is there. That makes them reluctant to disclose their true feelings. But as you gain their trust or some level of rapport with them, they’ll tell you what they’re upset about. 

“This is why, despite what the polls say, I would still argue that the outcome of the election is uncertain. Even if you give me 40 polls that say Umno will win a two-thirds majority, I would say, actually on the ground, you never know who they will ultimately vote for at the ballot box,” he said during the Q&A session. 

Wan Saiful is the co-founder of IDEAS, a non-profit research institute specialising in public policy. The Kuala Lumpur-based think tank established in 2010, seeks to promote supremacy of law, a limited government, a free market economy, and individual liberty.  

He is expected to contest a parliamentary seats in the general election, which must be held by August. 

Wan Saiful registered as a PAS life member in 1997 but resigned after criticising for taking up Islamic conservatism over progressive principles adopted by the late spiritual leader Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat.

“I come from a PAS background and I’ve not said anything negative other than that the leaders are taking them in the wrong direction. PAS will always have a place in Malaysian it belongs to those with a more conservative interpretation of Islam. 

“However, when it comes to PAS as a political party, I think it would be decimated in the coming election. Even if they have the support of 40%  of the Muslims, they wil be decimated. This 40%, distributed among the constituencies, means they will lose.”

Wan Saiful was candid about the need for Bersatu to “lead” Pakatan. The component currently has only one parliamentarian, former deputy prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin, who is the party president. Dr Mahathir Mohamad is chairman of both the component party and the coalition.

He said for there to be a change of government, one cannot “run away” from the fact that PH, in particular Bersatu needed to lead. 

“You have to deal with reality. I don’t know what the ideal situation is, whether PKR leads or Amanah or DAP; whatever it is, it doesn’t sell. 

“In order to create real political change in the country and to make that change possible, Bersatu has to lead. And Bersatu must take that mantle of leadership and turn it into something that can work,” he said.

To a question from the floor, asking whether an opposition-led government would ever reform Bumiputera privileges, Wan Saiful said the “Malay agenda” would always be a part of Malaysian politics. 

“When I was an activist, I was always thinking about how would I reform the Malay agenda. But now that I’ve entered politics, it means that I have more or less resigned to the fact that this reform you are talking about will not happen in my lifetime. 

“It is a constitutionally agreed upon provision. It is there. Tell me which political party is going to come forward and say change that. It will never happen. Not in my lifetime. I am saying this to you now, if I have any sense or thinking capability at all, I would prioritise a lot other things.

These priorities were separating the role of the attorney-general and the public prosecutor, creating an independent judiciary and media, and improving quality of life, education and healthcare, he said.

“I want to make sure welfare (aid) is properly distributed, and to stop talking about this very divisive religious politics. There’s so much to be done. – March 7, 2018.