FORMER Bersih 2.0 chairman Maria Chin Abdullah only stands a chance of winning a parliamentary seat in an urban constituency comprising mixed ethnicities, said analysts.

They said her independent candidacy, which will fall under the banner of the opposition Pakatan Harapan pact, would be more accepted in a place where voters likely knew about her previous activist work in Bersih.

“However, if the seat has a higher proportion of Malay voters, such as Titiwangsa, it will be harder for her to win,” said Ahmad Martadha Mohamed, a political analyst from Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM).

“Maria’s chances are dependent on the voting pattern factor. In seats where Chinese voters exceed 35%, she has a chance.”

He said racial composition, as well as a seat’s history in terms of Barisan Nasional or PH victories, were important considerations.

“Her brand name isn’t going to be enough,” he said, adding that Maria would likely seek to contest in an urban seat, such as Ampang, Petaling Jaya or Kepong.

Maria resigned as chairman of Bersih – a civil society group championing free and fair elections – to contest in the 14th general election, which must be held by August.

She announced that she would contest under the PH banner as its sole independent candidate.

Historically, there have only been a handful of independent candidates who secured seats on their own.

Shahrir Abdul Samad won the Johor Baru federal seat in 1988, while Abdul Jabar Mohamed Yusof controlled the Batu Laut state seat from 1974 to 1982.

“This is an experiment for PH. If it works, they would likely do it again in future elections,” said Universiti Malaya political analyst Awang Azman Awang Pawi.

He said PH was taking a risk by having Maria contest under its banner, as her appeal and reach was limited to urban, non-Malay-majority seats.

“As a pilot experiment, PH has to bear the risks. Her best chance is to contest in an urban seat. If it’s a Malay-majority rural seat, she would not be accepted.”

UUM political science lecturer Azizudin Sani said Maria’s candidacy had affected the public perception of Bersih, which claims to be bipartisan.

“Her decision to contest shows that Bersih is not a truly independent body, but has been in the hands of PH all along. Perhaps, she now feels that to do more, she must enter politics.”

He said Maria did not appear to have grassroots support, and her opponent would likely be a full-time politician.

“She will have to fight it out in a mixed seat where Malays are not that many.” – March 6, 2018.