A MINORITY government will need a confidence and supply agreement (CSA) with the opposition to retain power post-general election, an academic said.

Prof Dr Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid of Universiti Sains Malaysia said a CSA is needed to ensure that the prime minister is not ousted through a no-confidence vote.

After the 2018 general election, Malaysia saw a change of three prime ministers in a span of two years. Pakatan Harapan prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad was replaced by Muhyiddin Yassin after the Bersatu president took his party out of PH to form Perikatan Nasional with Barisan Nasional and PAS.

Muhyiddin managed to hold on to power for only 18 months before he was replaced by Ismail Sabri Yaakob, whose party Umno had withdrawn support for the Pagoh MP.

Ismail, who is Umno vice-president, also did not enjoy a stable administration as he was constantly pressured by the party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi to dissolve parliament.

“If there is a minority government, there should be a CSA between the government and the opposition. A unity government will be formed to get the numbers in parliament,” said Fauzi.

“A CSA is needed to prevent the prime minister from being ousted via a no-confidence vote as well as to ensure the government can function effectively.  A CSA is important to stop another Sheraton Move.”

Iman Research’s Badrul Hisyam Ismail said the anti-party hopping law does not stop a coalition from joining another pact.

“What happens if let’s say, PKR decides to join Bersatu and PAS in PN. Will that not initiate another conflict?” Badrul said.

“If (the major bloc does not have the numbers), the Yang di-Pertuan Agong might again have to ask political leaders to choose their PM candidate, which according to many experts is not a healthy practice in a democracy.”

Independent pollster Ilham Centre predicted that none of the three coalitions will win 112 of the 222 seats..

Its executive director Hisommudin Bakar said a survey showed that PH will emerge the biggest bloc with 86 seats if there is a voter turnout of at least 80%.

He said BN will cross the finish line with 51 seats and PN, 25 seats.

Hisommudin said a survey found that BN was still the choice of Malay voters, particularly in rural Malaysia, while PH continued to draw support from non-Malays.

He said Borneo parties will play a key role in deciding who is the new federal government.

It said that in Sarawak, PH is expected to win six of 31 seats, Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) 18, and Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM) one. There will be fierce competition for six other seats.

In Sabah and Labuan, BN is set to win three seats, PH two, and Warisan and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) six each.

Grand coalition

University Malaya’s Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said Malaysia could see the formation of a grand coalition if no party is able to win a majority.

He said a government with merely a simple majority will not be stable

“Having 112 seats in parliament is not safe. The government will need the support of 20 to 30 more MPs in the Dewan Rakyat.”

“In this case, I do see a creation of a grand coalition post-GE15; for example, PH+BN+GPS+GRS. This can materialise if the leaders can set aside person political ambitions and focus on developing the country,” he said. – November 19, 2022.