Zahid’s election strategy not on point, pollster says


Mohd Farhan Darwis

BARISAN Nasional (BN) chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s decision to drop several of its old guard impacted the BN campaign in 15th general election, independent pollster Ilham Centre said.

It said that Zahid’s strategy of fielding 80% new faces as candidates had also provoked a reaction from the party’s grassroots and impacted its machinery during the campaign.

Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said Umno went into the campaign in a state of turmoil with Zahid having to endure attacks on his leadership from Umno’s own candidates throughout the 14-day campaign. 

“The ‘housekeeping’ problems in the party resulting from the ‘backlash’ of those who were not selected as candidates had put Umno on the back foot for an election it had called.

“The actions of some Umno leaders who attacked Zahid illustrate how the party’s was divided and had lost direction throughout the campaigning period,” he said in a report on voter support patterns and election predictions published this afternoon.

The report predicted that Pakatan Harapan (PH) could win 86 seats compared to 51 seats by BN and 24 seats by Perikatan Nasional (PN).

Hisommudin said Zahid has failed to unite Umno, as what former prime minister Najib Razak had done, before he was imprisoned. 

“Najib’s absence as an icon of BN’s revival to unite the party elites and the influence of ‘Bossku’ who was able to attract the support of voters on the fence as well as new voters has now disappeared in GE15.

“This put the morale level of the BN machinery at its lowest,” he said. 

PH, on the other hand, he said was seen to be alive again with the presence of PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli.  

“Nevertheless, Rafizi’s return to PH was like a tonic that restores the morale and trust of activists who are disappointed with PH as well as public support. 

“PH’s strategy is still moving with three separate party machineries. 

“It provides an advantage because voters can make comparisons, as opposed to PAS and Bersatu candidates in PN, which are difficult to tell apart,” said the Ilham Centre report. 

Hisommudin said that PH chairman Anwar Ibrahim, as the coalition’s prime minister candidate, was seen to be successful in attracting support ahead of PM candidates of other parties. 

“Firstly, he has never been prime minister. Public opinion is high on Anwar’s ability to lead the country with the current state of the economy,” he said.

In addition, he said that Anwar contesting in Tambun also gave PH an advantage.

“Anwar’s charm in Tambun clearly turned PN’s safe seat into a seat that PH could win.

“The Tambun narrative was that they will send a prime minister to Putrajaya to create new enthusiasm among voters,” said the study. 

However, he said internal BN friction made Ismail Sabri Yaakob fall behind as a candidate for prime minister, even though his party is said to have agreed to nominate him. 

“Ismail’s good reputation throughout his 14 months as prime minister was used as capital for BN throughout the campaign. 

“Nevertheless, the internal shift in BN is unable to position Ismail as a convincing ‘poster boy’ in this GE,” he said. 

He said that PN had suddenly become the “underdog”, breaking the monopoly of competition between BN and PH. 

The coalition, he said, has the strength of political marketing and their aggressive machinery strategy through campaigns on social and print media, as well as face-to-face with the strengthened support of the organised and compact PAS machinery.

He also said that they continue to take advantage of the achievements of its PN chairman Muhyiddin Yassin when he led the country during the Covid crisis. 

“The aura of ‘Abah’ is fully utilised by bringing back the nostalgia of his leadership of disbursing aid when the people were affected by  Covid-19,” he said. 

As for Gerakan Tanah Air, he said it can only depend on the influence of its chairman Dr Mahathir Mohamad, and clearly had failed to give competition to other parties.  

The pact is only seen hovering in three areas – Langkawi, Jerlun and Kubang Pasu in Kedah – despite competing in 121 parliamentary seats. – November 18, 2022.


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