A CROWDED field, split votes and a challenge from a former ally may not deter incumbent Batu lawmaker P. Prabakaran from retaining the parliamentary seat in the coming general election, analysts said.

In fact, they said the 26-year-old Prabakaran, who is going for his second term, has a high chance of winning based on his work in the constituency since 2018.

They also do not think former Batu MP Tian Chua will fare well as an Independent, especially if he does not have the machinery, adding that most of the other candidates will lose their deposits.

International Islamic University Malaysia’s Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar said other parties and especially Independent candidates will not have a chance at winning the seat.

“They don’t have the requisite machinery to mobilise the voters,” he said.

“Prabakaran is still the favourite to win the seat, but some sympathy votes may go to Tian Chua.”

Tunku Mohar said although Tian Chua is a two-time MP for Batu, he will be without strong machinery and this will hamper his chances to win the seat.

Batu is seeing a 10-cornered fight with four Independents in the race.

PKR veteran Tian Chua was disqualified from contesting in the 2018 general election due to a RM2,000 fine for insulting the modesty of a police officer.

Prabakaran won the seat as an Independent in that election, with the support of Tian Chua and PKR, and then joined the party.

However, over the years, their relationship has deteriorated, with Tian Chua standing as an Independent to reclaim Batu.

Apart from Prabakaran and Tian Chua, the others who are in the race are A. Kohilan Pillay (Barisan Nasional-MIC), Azhar Yahya (Perikatan Nasional-PAS), Wan Azliana Wan Adnan (Gerakan Tanah Air-Pejuang), Naganathan Pillai (Warisan) and Mohd Zulkifli Abdul Fattah (Parti Rakyat Malaysia).

The Independents are lawyer-cum-activist Siti Zabedah Kasim, social media influencer Nur Fathiah Syazwana Shaharudin and social activist Too Gao Lan. 

Tunku Mohar said the Independents will have an impossible task of winning and it will not be surprising that all of them will lose their deposits.

“Even candidates from Pejuang, PRM and Warisan will find it difficult to keep their deposits,” he said.

“The real contest will be between BN and PKR, but assuming a consistent anti-BN sentiment in urban and semi-urban Kuala Lumpur constituencies, it’s safe to say that Kohilan’s chance is slim.”

‘Tian Chua the spoiler’

Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs said 10 candidates contesting will not make much difference as the fight is between PH and BN.

“Most of the other candidates are likely to lose their deposits. It’s basically PH versus BN with perhaps Tian Chua as the spoiler,” he said.

“Voters in such constituencies care more about which side should form the next government and thus identify more with the party rather than the candidates.”

He believes that Prabakaran has a high chance of winning as he is contesting on the PH ticket.

Oh said despite Tian Chua facing the sack from the party for contesting as an Independent, he will still get some votes. 

“Perhaps enough for him (Tian Chua) to keep his deposit,” he said.

“The money for their (Independents’) deposits could have been channelled to more productive use, especially amid these socio-economic uncertainties.”

He also predicted Kohilan to get more votes.

University of Tasmania Professor of Asian Studies James Chin also believed Prabakaran will win the seat again and Kohilan will do well.

“Prabakaran has a good chance of winning despite the split in votes, while Tian Chua may not do well as the support has shifted to the former,” he said.

“I don’t think the rest have a chance. The seven other candidates will lose their deposits.

“All the Independents won’t win. The two people who may get back their deposits could be Siti and Kohilan.” – November 7, 2022.