THE general election is turning out to be the toughest ballot to predict to date.

This mainly because Malaysia has had three different governments in the past four years, all with a tenuous grip on power and whose achievements have been far from satisfactory.

According to most analysts, Barisan Nasional – with Umno as its lynchpin – has the edge, albeit with a wafer-thin majority.

At state level recently, Pakatan Harapan did not perform well in Sabah and Sarawak, while BN romped home in Malacca and Johor.

The argument that it would be difficult for BN to win in two weeks due to Umno leaders tainted with corruption seemed not to hold water, judging from its landslide victories in Malacca and Johor.

Some analysts have been saying for weeks that BN is going to lose because it has called an election during monsoon season.

However, time and again, the PN government – led by an Umno prime minister – has tried to assure the people that it has a solid plan to mitigate the worst effects of a devastating flood.

Moreover, it has now come to the point the people have already accepted the inevitability of an election during the monsoon season, because uppermost in their mind is to have their say via the ballot box, come rain or shine, to end the tenure of government with a tenuous majority.

To them, it seems enough is enough with the idea of three weak governments in four years, because it is the root cause of political and economic instability in the country, which has made them suffer so much.

Moreover, all coalitions are calling their supporters and fence sitters to come out in droves to vote.

BN-Umno continues to use the catchphrase of “Stability and Prosperity”, while PH’s slogan of “Kita Boleh” is a Malay translation of former US president Barack Obama’s successful 2008 campaign slogan “We Can!”

It is also quite similar with the slogan “Malaysia Boleh!” associated with the achievements of Malaysia during Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s first tenure as the prime minister from 1981 to 2003.

Sloganeering is a small component of success in an election. What matters are the issues, which is what will motivate people to vote.

The first is the economy, which includes bread and butter problems like the high cost of living, affordable housing and healthcare, eradicating absolute and relative poverty, enhancing social protection and social security, and ensuring each citizen will have relatively more to enjoy life.

These are very important issues because we have to fulfil our material needs first.

The second is the abstract and the institutional (idealism), which revolve around abolishing corruption, inculcating good governance, equality, fairness and social justice.

These are very important issues too because of the adage that man does not live by bread alone.

However, the two issues will resonate differently with the voters.

In 2018, it was the abstract and institutional issues that carried the day and provided a landmark victory for PH.

Yet, in Malacca and Johor, it was bread and butter issues that came to the fore.

This could be due to the nation then was suffering from the severe impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, where material well-being was severely affected, so bread and butter issues became the most singular and uppermost thing in the minds of the voters.

Another reason could be the people can see that PH proved to be no better than BN.

It could not solve some of the bread and butter issues that it promised in 2018, while higher cost of living and affordable housing, encapsulated in the phenomenon of the perut (tummy) economy, remained core problems.

However, this is not to say that BN will have a smooth path to an easy victory.

This could well be true before Umno’s president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi announced the list of BN candidates on November 1.

The Umno president committed political hara-kiri by dropping many Umno ministers, and exposed the infighting between the court and cabinet clusters within Umno, weakening BN.

So much for his claim that there won’t be any vindictiveness on his part. Now the talk of the town is that he is aiming to become prime minister.

Infighting within Umno will not only destroy the party, but will also cause the people to suffer, as they did during PH’s short tenure in charge.

It looks like BN’s days are numbered, in part due its members disgruntled that it failed to field a minimum 30% female candidates, as it pledged.

Yet that does not make the prediction easier on which coalition will win. Political analysts and observers will have their work cut out.

It could well be that PN ends up as the dark horse, just like Muhyiddin was in the prime ministerial contest following the Sheraton Move.

To begin with, its slogan is about right: “Prihatin, Bersih dan Stabil (caring, clean and stable)”.

The bread and butter, and abstract and institutional issues are harmoniously balanced and addressed. – November 6, 2022.

* Jamari Mohtar is the editor of Let’s Talk!

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.