FAR-RIGHT incumbent Jair Bolsonaro opened a slight lead over leftist challenger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva with around half the votes counted yesterday in Brazil’s presidential election, which looked likely to head to a runoff.

Outperforming expectations based on pre-election opinion polls, Bolsonaro had 46.3% of the vote to 44.9% for Lula, with 54.6% of polling stations reporting, according to official results.

The count was more advanced in Bolsonaro bastions in the north and southeast than in Lula’s stronghold in the northeast.

But the result looked surprisingly strong for Bolsonaro – and disappointing for Lula.

Leading polling firm Datafolha had given the charismatic but tarnished ex-president (2003-2010) 50% of the vote to 36% for Bolsonaro in a poll published on the eve of the election. This appeared to put the veteran leftist within reach of a victory in the first round.

Instead, the Latin American giant now looks headed for a runoff on October 30, extending what has already been a bitterly divisive campaign.

Bolsonaro’s camp was quick to celebrate the early results.

“Bolsonaro leading out of the gate. I called it: Datafolha got it wrong, again,” Bolsonaro’s congressman son Eduardo wrote on Twitter.

On Lula’s side, supporters were tense, but not giving up hope.

“Everyone’s nervous with the early results. But the states where the count is most advanced are the most pro-Bolsonaro. We’re going to turn it around,” prominent indigenous leader Sonia Guajajara, a congressional candidate, said at the Sao Paulo hotel where Lula’s camp was gathered.

Bolsonaro and his inner circle were meanwhile watching the results at the presidential residence in Brasilia. – AFP, October 3, 2022.