UMNO could not hold on for much longer from calling a general election as delaying the polls would possibly allow the opposition enough time to regroup and gather strength, political analysts said.

They also said Umno believes the low voter turnout, especially during this monsoon season, would help them reclaim Putrajaya after losing the battle in 2018.

Umno was still using the victories in the Malacca and Johor elections as examples where a low voter turnout had contributed towards the party wresting the two southern states from Pakatan Harapan (PH).

Ilham Centre executive director, Hisommudin Bakar, said it was the low voter turnout that had helped Barisan Nasional (BN) in Johor and Malacca, adding that the coalition was hoping the same scenario would repeat if the general election is held this year.

Hisommudin said another factor being considered by Umno was the discontent among opposition factions.

“Umno is using the same theory, by having the election as soon as possible, especially during monsoon season, it could come out victorious just like what happened in Malacca and Johor.

“Voters at that time could not care less about politics because they were already tired with the political situation.

“They did not come out to vote and Umno won because of the low voter turnout.

“Also, Umno knows the opposition is weak. They cannot let them regroup and gather strength. The longer they wait, the more trouble they’ll get and it will be harder for them to win,” he said.

Hisommudin added that the opposition would find it hard to prepare if the election is held this year as there are many other areas that required adjustments.

“PH is still negotiating with Muda. Bersatu and PAS are also not clear yet on the seats. PH and Perikatan Nasional (PN) need more time to convince voters, especially those who voted for PH in 2018,” he said.

Umno secretary-general Ahmad Maslan said on Friday that Malaysia will have snap polls once Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob meets the Yang di-Pertuan Agong to dissolve the parliament.

Earlier, The Malaysian Insight reported that the dissolution of parliament is expected to take place in mid-October with the polls likely in November.

The next parliamentary meeting starts on Monday and will last till November 29, with Budget 2023 to be tabled on Friday. However, it is widely expected that parliament will be dissolved as early as October 12.

Dr Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said while some may say that Umno could lose if an election is held during the floods, the risk of the party losing is minimal as voters may just boycott the polls altogether.

“They still think that the people are not interested in politics, just like what happened in Malacca and Johor. That is why they are pushing for an election this year, regardless of the weather. The longer they wait, the smaller their chances of winning.

“They need to do it now when everything is showing that they will win. It is not because the opposition is not strong, they are not united, and voters might as well not go out to vote if the weather is bad.

“They won’t go out and vote in protest against BN but they will just boycott the election as a whole which would be an advantage for BN,” Mazlan said.

Last week, opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim urged the government to hold the general election next year to ensure it does not burden the public.

The PKR president said he was concerned with the possibility of floods affecting the election if it is held this year, adding that the national polls should be called once everything is under control.

Anwar’s comment came after Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi questioned the opposition’s sincerity in raising concerns over holding a general election during the monsoon season.

Zahid said the unpredictability of the floods was a good reason to call for snap polls now so that the welfare of the people could be taken care of by a stronger and more stable government.

Umno is desperate

Iman Research programme director, Badrul Hisham Ismail, said Umno needs an election which they are confident of winning while Zahid is desperate to win the polls to save his own neck.

The Shah Alam High Court last week acquitted Zahid of all 40 corruption charges related to the foreign visa system but the Umno president still faces 47 charges from another ongoing criminal case.

The trial for the 47 charges, at the Kuala Lumpur High Court, involves charitable foundation Yayasan Akalbudi.

“There are several factors, one is the low voter turnout and the other is the weak opposition.

“But what is clear is that Zahid is desperate. The longer he waits, the bigger the risk will be for Umno. The party leaders want this election because they know they can win.

“They don’t care about rain or floods. The heavier the rain the better because people won’t go out to vote and that will give them the edge.

“The opposition parties, PH, PN and Pejuang will go against each other.”

Badrul added the opposition, especially PH, will have less time to prepare for roadshows, thus causing more trouble for the coalition.

“They are not together. Muda and PSM (Parti Sosialis Malaysia) are still negotiating. Then you have PN which is Bersatu and PAS . On the other hand you have Pejuang. Umno wants it now because of this. Simple as that,” he said.

Not so much the weather, opposition is weak

Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Azmi Hassan, however, believes the main reason Umno is calling for snap polls is because of the disunity among the opposition parties.

He said Umno does not need a low voter turnout to win the election.

“The Election Commission needs three to four weeks to study and come up with a date while the Meteorological Department only needs two to three days to determine the weather. So that is not the problem.

“However if on polling day, heavy rain and flood occurs, the Yang di-Pertuan Agong can use the emergency ordinance to postpone the election.

“The thing now is the opposition is weak. Umno does not need the weather to win, all it needs is a weak opposition,” Azmi added. – October 2, 2022.