THE Umno Supreme Council meeting tonight will decide the probable dates for parliament’s dissolution and the 15th general election, likely this November, sources said.

The next parliamentary meeting starts on Monday until November 29, with Budget 2023 to be tabled next Friday, but it is widely expected parliament will be dissolved as early as October 12.

“Parliament will be dissolved by the second week of October and polls will take place a month after that,” Barisan Nasional (BN) leaders told The Malaysian Insight on condition of anonymity.

The BN government under Dr Mahathir Mohamad made a similar move in 1999, tabling the budget and then dissolving parliament to pave way for a general election. 

It is understood that the general election could be held within four weeks of parliament’s dissolution, depending on whether the states with expiring mandates dissolve their respective legislatures too. Sarawak, Sabah, Malacca and Johor have already held state polls in the last two years.

Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob, who returned last night from the United Arab Emirates, hinted on September 17 that a general election would be held soon pending discussions with top Umno leaders.

Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan said in August that Ismail had said election would be held this year.

Ismail is Umno vice-president who broke party and national history by becoming prime minister instead of those above him in the hierarchy.

In 2018, then prime minister Najib Razak went almost the full five-year term, only announcing parliament dissolution on April 6, weeks before his mandate expired. 

The 2018 general election was held just a month later on May 9, and for the first time on a weekday – Wednesday – sparked outrage and pushed many to raise funds to ensure a full turnout, which led to BN’s historic loss.

Pakatan Harapan (PH) ended up with 121 seats in the 222-seat parliament while the opposition held the rest, with Dr Mahathir becoming prime minister for the second time. In the current parliament, Ismail leads a coalition of 115 MPs excluding Pekan MP Najib, who has been convicted and jailed 12 years. Two other seats are vacant due to deaths.

“It depends on the Election Commission but I think a general election this time will be held on a weekend, not a weekday like the last time or people will get angry again,” an Umno source told The Malaysian Insight.

Budget and monsoon

The source also said BN will go ahead despite criticisms that the polls would be held just after the government tables the budget and during the year-end monsoon season that typically causes flash floods.

“Look, the current government is pretty much a dysfunctional coalition of those who will contest against each other when polls are announced. Better to end this charade now and get a government with a clear mandate,” he added.

BN ended up leading the government in August last year after the PH government collapsed in February 2020 when Bersatu decided to quit the administration led by Dr Mahathir.

Bersatu then formed the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition government comprising BN and PAS, together with support from Sarawak parties. That coalition government fell apart when Bersatu president and prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin lost majority support in parliament.

Both PH and PN have asked Ismail to hold off polls until after the December monsoon season but BN sources said that has instead hastened the polls date.

“Our political foes claim we are useless so isn’t it better to have the polls and get a competent government to manage and mitigate the effects of the floods if it happens?” one source asked.

The Malaysian Meteorological Department issued a statement yesterday saying the inter-monsoon season is expected to start from Monday until the end of November with winds and evening thunderstorms that could cause flash floods. – September 30, 2022.