UMNO’S push for the next general election to be held during the monsoon season in November will court the wrath of the people and possibly backfire on Barisan Nasional (BN), political analysts said.

They said while Umno wants to ride on the momentum of its wins in Johor and Malacca, having the polls while the people are suffering is not a good move.

If Umno chooses to go ahead with the elections during the monsoon, then the Election Commission (EC) must step up and ensure people living in areas that are flooded will make it out to vote.

Dr Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said Umno risks making the people angry.

“When they are angry, they may come out in droves to vote against the party, just like they did in the 2018 general election,” Mazlan told The Malaysian Insight.

“When they held GE14 in the middle of the week, people still went home to vote,” he said, referring to the last general election.

The 2018 polls were held on a Wednesday. Despite it being a workday, Malaysians came out to vote, making history when they voted out BN after 60 years in power.

Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar also agreed that an election during the monsoon will backfire on Umno.

“Umno is banking on a low voter turnout, just like in Johor and Malacca, to work in its favour,” he said.

“Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi is also banking on a fractured opposition to win, but a general election and state elections are fundamentally different.

“I’m worried that Umno may have made the wrong calculation, just like it did in GE14, where it called the election based on its wins at the Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar by-elections.”

Hisommudin said if the floods cause severe damage, the voters may choose to punish BN.

“We cannot determine the extent of the damage from the floods. It will be dangerous (for Umno) if the voters are emotional and choose to punish it.”

Umno’s excuse that Dr Mahathir Mohamad held an election during the 1999 monsoon season also does not hold water, he said.

“The world climate is different now,” he said.

EC is responsible

Mazlan said the EC must take all measures to ensure that voters will be able to exercise their rights to vote.

“The Meteorological Department has already warned about the weather, so if Umno still goes ahead, the EC must be prepared,” he said.

“The EC must think about ways to get people to the polling stations or setting up stations at flood relief centres. That is its responsibility.

“It has to help people get to the voting stations. Otherwise, voters can take legal action; their right to vote has been curtailed.”

Mazlan said the assumption that flood victims will not want to go out to vote is also wrong.

“Voters are much more aware now, and they know better than the government. You can no longer keep them in the dark,” he said.

Mazlan said overall, the voter turnout, if held during the monsoon, will be low.

“But it will backfire on the government and will destroy the image of the government as it shows it only cares about power and not the people’s welfare,” he said.

Earlier this week, Zahid said despite the possibility of floods, BN is willing to face the situation to campaign in the general election.

He said should the polls be held at the end of the year, the BN Youth machinery will be ready to provide assistance in flood-hit areas.

He has since faced severe criticism from the opposition for his comments.

Yesterday, Umno vice-president Mahdzir Khalid dispelled allegations that the general election will be held during the monsoon, following a cabinet meeting.

He said the cabinet had instead discussed preparations to face floods. – September 25, 2022.