’TIS the season of election fever. But how long will this season last? 

It depends on when Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob wants to have an audience with the Yang di-Pertuan Agong to advise him to dissolve parliament.

In Malaysia, a general election (GE) was usually held any time after four years have elapsed from the first sitting held after the last polls.

If parliament is not dissolved by July 16 next year, then it will automatically dissolve itself on that date, after which an election for GE15 must be held within 60 days, by September 16, 2023. 

As this means that an election could be held anytime soon, it is understandable that the political parties are earnestly preparing for it.

Although it is still early days yet to predict the victor, pundits are saying BN with its lynchpin Umno will win. But most analysts say the days of a party or coalition winning with a handsome majority (not necessarily a two-thirds majority) are over.

So even if BN wins, it would be likely be by a precarious majority, which means politicians of all hues must learn the art/science of making compromises after the GE to prevent instability to the country.

And if compromises are to be made after the GE, then all politicians must watch their mouths during campaigning.

Loose-cannon politicians with their mud-slinging statements during this time would make it very difficult to for parties to reconcile after the polls.

BN, which had ruled the country uninterrupted for some 60 years, was brought down by Pakatan Harapan (PH) in 2018 but the latter lasted only 22 months in power.  

PH leaders, its rank and file and its supporters seem to blame this pathetic performance on the traitors among them who are now in government.

They go to the extent of accusing Umno, PAS and other coalition parties in the government of “stealing” the mandate of the people.  

Such is the sad story of PH, which two years after the Sheraton Move, is unable to move on and come to term with its loss of power. It remains obsessed with accusing others of being traitors, a backdoor government and a failed government.

The coalition should do some soul searching and ask itself why it had such “traitors” in its midst in the first place, and why their stay in office was a brief one.

Perhaps its short rule could be due to the fact that in its desperate attempt to bring down BN, its manifesto promised people the moon.

Contrast this with the BN manifestos over the six decades. They may not appear to be as excellent as the PH manifesto in 2018 but the test lies in their execution.

BN/Umno members calling for GE 15 to be within the year should hear the sobering assessment of PM Ismail.

In his speech at the Wanita BN convention on August 14, Ismail called for a mood, not just among BN members but all voters to assess the sentiments on the ground.

“We cannot go to war in the dark. We don’t know our strengths. How do we get voters on polling day if we don’t have this survey?” he said. 

“BN members make up only about 30% of the voters. The rest are not with us and there are some who may be on the fence.  

“Let’s not get too excited over a (positive) mood survey involving our members only because, of course, they are our supporters,” he said, adding that many leaders had claimed in the past that they could win simply by basing their predictions on their members’ support but had eventually lost.

Ismail was spot on.

Describing the next polls as “a tough one”, he said BN should not underestimate the opposition bloc.

“I would like to stress that we cannot look down on our opponents, who may have already drafted their plans to reconquer Putrajaya. We are facing an uphill battle.

“The attack on the government today is an attack on the BN leadership. Therefore, it is our responsibility to explain the real issues,” he said.

On this, the PM is not 100% correct because the attack on the government today is actually an attack on the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government he leads. While he is an Umno PM, BN MPs make up only 42 of the 117 lawmakers in the governing coalition.

Now, the million-dollar question: When will a general electon be held?

These are a few likely scenarios: One, if it takes Wanita BN four months to complete the survey, taking into the size of the task, then the PM will receive the findings only in January, ruling out a GE this year.

But despite the odds, if Wanita BN manages to complete the survey in two months and presents the findings to Ismail in November, then there are two likely outcomes.

If the feedback is positive, he will ask for parliament to be dissolved at once so that an election can be held in November or December.

But if he isn’t comforted by the findings, then the election will be held next year. – August 19, 2022.

* Jamari Mohtar reads The Malaysian Insight.