BARISAN Nasional has a good chance of losing Kedah in the 14th general election due to a silent protest among supporters and its precarious hold in many state seats, said analysts.

This is despite boasts from the ruling coalition’s big wigs in the rice bowl state that it can retain Kedah and win more seats than it did in the 13th general election.

They said that the tag team of Dr Mahathir Mohamad, arguably the state’s most famous product, and former Menteri Besar Mukhriz Mahathir is poised to channel the public’s anger over the rising costs of living into votes against BN.

Even sources within BN concede that based on the ruling coalition’s performance in GE13, it can only safely win 12 to 13 state seats.

Kedah’s legislative assembly has 36 seats, making 19 the minimum number of seats required to form a government with a simple majority. BN currently holds 21 seats – 8 of which were won with majorities of less than 2,000 votes, making them ripe for the picking by either Pakatan Harapan or PAS.

Hisommudin Bakar of the Ilham Centre said this includes seats such as Bakar Bata, currently held by Kedah BN chairman and Menteri Besar Ahmad Bashah Md Hanifah.

In GE13, Ahmad Bashah narrowly retained the seat by 895 votes, defeating PKR’s Eekmal Ahmad.

“The seats that BN won by less than 2,000 votes are in danger of being lost,” said Hisommudin, whose own study of Kedah revealed that there was a silent wave of discontent sweeping BN supporters in Kedah.

“In Kedah, you cannot judge Umno’s strength by the amount of people leaving the party and joining Bersatu. But there is a silent protest going on within Umno ranks in Kedah.”

Winning personality

A big part of BN’s difficulty in defending Kedah is because it has not put up a personality that can match Mukhriz, the former menteri besar who was sacked from Umno in 2014.

In GE13, Mukhriz’s stature and reputation as Dr Mahathir’s son helped BN wrest Kedah back from the Pakatan Rakyat government.

This time, Mukhriz is largely perceived as PH’s menteri besar-designate for Kedah.

In order for BN to retain Kedah, it has to announce a menteri besar candidate who can match Mukhriz, said Prof Dr Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya.

“The current menteri besar’s image is good but he is less popular compared to Mukhriz,” said Azman of UM’s Malay Studies Academy.

Multi-cornered fights

Malay Muslims’ long familiarity with Umno especially in Kedah’s rural areas is a reason why some analysts believe it can still hold on to the state.

Azman said BN can retain Kedah, although winning a two-thirds majority will be difficult.

He said this is because historically, opposition votes are split when BN goes against more than one opposition party.

“It is not impossible (for BN to win two-thirds) as PH is not strong since Bersatu and Amanah are new parties, and PAS could split the vote in Kedah.”

But Prof Dr Ahmad Atory Hussain does not believe that multi-party fights automatically give BN the upper hand.

He said one of the only ways in which BN could achieve a two-thirds majority in the Kedah assembly was if it worked with PAS, which is also unlikely.

“But such cooperation will be suspicious to their members. They have to remember that their parties have split into Bersatu and Amanah,” Ahmad Atory said referring to the splinter parties created by ex-Umno and ex-PAS leaders respectively. – February 23, 2018.