DESPITE criticisms that nationwide electoral boundary changes proposed by the Election Commission (EC) will benefit Barisan Nasional, Pakatan Harapan believes that the delineation exercise could spell victory for the opposition pact in Kedah.

Deputy Kedah PH chairman Dr Azman Ismail said the re-delineation proposed by EC for the next election will further separate voters along racial lines, with Malay voters being isolated from non-Malays.

This move, he believes, is meant to consolidate support for BN in majority-Malay constituencies, as non-Malays are seen to be opposition voters.

However, he said the new electoral boundaries could benefit PH instead, as their observations on the ground have backed studies that show a shift in Malay support for BN in the state.

“If Malay support shifts by 10% to PH, I believe the re-delineation exercise will be a trap for BN. This support will lead to a rejection of BN,” said Dr Azman.

Dr Mahathir factor

This shift, according to Dr Azman, can be clearly seen in the last six months thanks to the presence of Bersatu chairman and former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

“From the start in Kedah, we could see a spike in support for Dr Mahathir, especially in this past year.

“The support is very clear and obvious, especially in these last six months, and the support is from traditional Malay villages which we say are not ‘anti-change’, but still very conservative.”

Dr Azman said many Kedahans still hold Dr Mahathir in high regard.

“That’s why we feel this can be translated into votes. I think Umno made a big mistake when they over-attacked Dr Mahathir.

“The people of Kedah know Dr Mahathir as their doctor, and doctors have this special relationship with their patients.”

Dr Azman said other factors leading PH to believe there will be a shift of Malay votes from Umno is the festering disunity within Kedah Umno, and the weakness of Islamist party PAS.

The failure of Umno and PAS to gain the confidence of Malay voters will draw them to Bersatu and to PH.

“Kedah  PAS is growing weaker, and I believe this is because they have yet to rise from their defeat in the 13th general election,” he said.

PAS, then part of the opposition Pakatan Rakyat coalition, captured Kedah in the 12th general election in 2008, but lost almost half its state seats in the 2013 polls.

The state has 36 state seats and 15 parliamentary seats. 19 state seats are needed to form the state government.

PH currently has eight state seats, and four parliamentary seats.

“In Kedah, we will need 11 more to win and to form the state government,” said Dr Azman.

“And we can see that PH has the potential to win more than that 11.”

Cost of living issues

Kedah is the country’s main producer of rice, and agriculture, farming and fishing are the main sources of income for its people.

The racial make-up of the state is 76% Malay, 13% Chinese, 7% Indian and 4% from other races. There are some 1.2 million registered voters.

Dr Azman said the main challenges faced by the people of Kedah are the rising cost of living and unemployment.

“These are some of the complaints from the people, about the rising cost of living, and, as farmers, rubber tappers, the price of commodities has dropped so much that it has affected their income.

“The people of Kedah depend on the strength of the ringgit, as they shop and do business in Thailand.”

According to the Statistics Department, Kedah has the second lowest per capita income in the country, with Kelantan at bottom spot.

The state’s per capita GDP of about RM19,000 is five times lower than Kuala Lumpur’s. – February 22, 2018.