“LOVE means never having to say you’re sorry.” It was the catchphrase based on a line from a novel and was popularised by the 1970 film adaptation Love Story.
Malaysia’s romance with the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) started in October 2010. It got “engaged” on October 5, 2015 – five years later. So great is the love for the TPPA, we were the first country to ratify it.
This great love story covers 12 countries and collectively accounts for about 40% of the global economy, a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of US$27.5 trillion (RM118 trillion) and a population of more than 800 million, as of 2014.
The main reason Malaysia fell in love with the TPPA was market access to four countries that we currently have no FTAs with – Canada, Mexico, Peru and United States. Also, the opportunity for local products to enter a bigger market and we may lose our competitive edge to other countries, such as China, Taiwan or Thailand if we decide to join the TPPA later.
In a restrictive study done by PwC in 2015, there were supposed to be some net benefits. These include higher GDP, rise in investments, lower non-tariffs measures and Bumiputera and SME policies will remain unchanged. But this study did not make any strategic recommendations.
Sadly, the US “broke” the engagement and just recently, the new US trade representative said there was no way back. They expect to stay engaged and believe at some point there will be a series of bilateral agreements.
Due to its deep affection, the international trade and industry minister said: “Malaysia, in the meantime, is keeping its options open. In evaluating Malaysia’s participation in the TPPA without the US, an important consideration will be the possibility of Malaysia missing out on economic opportunities should the other 10 countries decide to go ahead with the trade agreement”.
Another point is the commitment to maintain the momentum of trade liberalisation and regional integration by continuing the discussion to bring the comprehensive, high-standard trade agreement into force. With that, Malaysia will continue to amend the legislations covering several areas, including labour and intellectual property rights.
To put in perspective, the Americans’ share of the combined GDP is more than 63% (US$17.4 trillion). The US share of Malaysia’s exports and imports among the 12 countries is about 20% and 22% respectively. And Malaysia’s exports and imports with Canada, Mexico and Peru combined, totalled 2.5% and 1.7% respectively.
What economic opportunities will Malaysia lose if the other countries proceed? What trade liberalisation and regional integration are we talking about when we have FTAs with the other seven countries and our trade with the other three is insignificant. Granted we want a high-standard trade agreement but it was tailored specifically for the TPPA and may not be suitable for other trade protocols.
The bigger market (US) that we were looking at has dumped us and what competitive edge are we talking about.
I have discussed the TPPA issues in a few articles previously, the most recent being “TPPA death knell – what say you…” (January 21, 2017).
Wouldn’t it make more sense for us to now concentrate our resources on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – a proposed FTA between Asean and Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand.
In 2017, prospective RCEP member states accounted for a population of 3.4 billion people with a total GDP (on purchasing power parity) of US$49.5 trillion – approximately 39% of the global GDP.
Further, there is this One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative which promotes globalisation. OBOR is seen to be more inclusive and fairer compared with other Western-led initiatives. And it spans 65 nations, representing 60% of world population and 35% of global GDP.
The US may not continue to be the axis of economic power as they had their fair share in the 20th century. This is the new millennium and Asia is poised to take over – Asian-style.
I wonder if we are still thinking “You’re still the one I run to, the one that I belong to, you’re still the one I want for life” (Shania Twain, You’re Still The One) or “Maybe I don’t know that much but I know this much is true, I was blessed because I was loved by you” (Celine Dion, Because You Loved Me).
For me, this epic love story has to end. I think we need not say “sorry” and if need be, the sorry is only meant for the other three who are on the other side of the world.
Let us move on with our neighbours.
But then, “Love is when what you want is never important. But what the other person needs and wants are always paramount”.
What say you… – May 28, 2017.
* Saleh Mohammed is a The Malaysian Insight reader.
* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.
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