SHAIFUL Hazizy Zainol Abidin is either one confident politician or full of bombast.

The Kedah Umno Youth chief has made it his personal mission to make the state the political graveyard of Dr Mahathir Mohamad and his son, Mukhriz.

He believes that defeating Dr Mahathir in the next elections will finish off Bersatu once and for all.

And for good measure, Shaiful thinks that Bersatu only has a small influence in Kedah and a negligible force in Selangor, Perak and Negri Sembilan.

“Bersatu has a slight influence in Kedah. I think it will do all it can to get a seat in Kedah and we will fight all out to make sure it doesn’t win,” said Shaiful.

Shaiful said Umno must finish off Bersatu in the state at GE14.

“Dr Mahathir will be too old by the time the next general election comes. I do not think the party will rebound from a defeat.”

The splinter Umno party was formed in 2016 by Dr Mahathir after he quit Umno. Mukhriz, who was removed as Kedah menteri besar, also left Umno.

Former deputy prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin and other veteran Umno leaders also joined Bersatu.

Shaiful conceded that Kedah-born Dr Mahathir and Mukhriz have a following among the Umno grassroots.

But he is confident that the sympathy will not turn to votes for the opposition because the Umno rank-and-file would not want to lose benefits from being associated with the state government.

He said Kedah Umno is engaging the grassroots but did not say how it hopes to counter Dr Mahathir’s and Mukhriz’s influence with them.

Kedah has 36 state assembly seats.

BN holds 21 followed by PAS (8), DAP (2) and Amanah (1). It also has 15 parliamentary seats with BN holding 10, PKR (4) and PAS (1).

In 2008, BN lost to the Pakatan Rakyat opposition bloc which saw the appointment of the first PAS menteri besar – Azizan Razak.

In 2013, after the BN recaptured the state, Mukhriz was appointed menteri besar.

Shaiful rubbished the studies from Ilham Centre that areas like Kubang Pasu, Jerlun and Langkawi are likely to fall to Bersatu calling them “overgeneralisation”.

Umno Pendang division Wanita chief Suraya Yaakob does not believe that Dr Mahathir’s influence is stronger than that of BN.

“I don’t think Dr Mahathir’s influence is big now. Many youngsters do not know who Dr Mahathir is.

“It is true that he is an iconic leader but his approach in the past during his time and now is different,” said Suraya.

Political analyst Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said it is difficult for BN to deny Dr Mahathir’s and Mukhriz’s influence in Kedah.

“Dr Mahathir and his son cannot be seen as not having an influence. Mukhriz had two years’ experience as menteri besar and Dr Mahathir’s 22 years’ contribution to Kedah and his influence is still there,” said the political analyst from Universiti Sains Malaysia.

He added that BN’s intention to end Bersatu’s lifespan can only happen if it is able to win by a big majority.

Bersatu has given the mandate to Mukhriz to lead the line-up of Pakatan Harapan leaders in Kedah.

PH has announced that Bersatu will contest six parliamentary seats and 12 state seats in GE14.

Shaiful is confident that the youth vote will be with BN in Kedah.

There are about 500,000 young Kedahans registered to vote this time. Some 50% of them are working outside the state but are registered voters in Kedah.

“The main concern is always cost of living, income, employment, better housing,” said Shaiful.

Most of these issues have been addressed by the government, said the Umno Youth chief, brimming with confidence.

Is this confidence well founded? Analysts and even polls conducted by Umno suggest that even if BN retains Kedah, it will be a hard-fought victory. – February 17, 2018.