ARABLE land is defined by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation as land currently used, or potentially capable of being used, to grow seasonal crops.

This definition excludes land used for pasturing, tree-farming or more durable agricultural products, such as vineyards, orchards, and coffee and rubber plantations.

In turn, non-arable land can sometimes be made arable; for example, by removing forests or tilling pasture land. Some land, such as mountains, tundra or desert, is permanently non-arable.

The word “arable” comes from the Latin word “arabilis”, meaning “able to be ploughed”.

In light of the increasing food prices faced by Malaysia, if not the rest of the world, due to hoarding and the Russia-Ukraine war (Russia is ranked number two in terms of the size of most number of able land, while Ukraine is number 10), any seismic event in the region is bound to impose an enormous pressure on the world.

Malaysia imports 60% of its food. It imported RM55.4 billion of food in 2020. When one factors in the fact that RM 4.40 is now US$1, Malaysia will suffer an economic compression.

The country is dependent on imports for 88.8% of mutton and 76.4% of beef, which are mostly buffaloes imported from India.

It was once self-sufficient in poultry, too. Malaysia is now importing chicken to fill the void caused by the closure of many poultry farms.

More imports imply more outflow of the ringgit, causing it to weaken further against all currencies, especially the greenback.

Asia Sentinel last week reported “many institutional issues prevent any increase in production”.

“Most of the primary sector, led by government-linked companies and other politically connected companies, has traditionally focused on the production of commodity crops rather than food.”

According to Agriculture and Food Industries Minister Ronald Kiandee, the targeted source countries are Brazil, China and Thailand, though prices from these countries are higher than other countries, according to industry sources.

These three countries, however, have their own problems, leading to rising prices. Brazil is a questionable source, as its chicken and meat exports have been banned, due to their halal integrity, by most Middle Eastern nations; China is currently a net importer; and, Thailand is currently facing an African swine fever outbreak, which has led to a sudden rise in chicken demand.

The high price of Thai-produced chicken is publicly acknowledged by Veterinary Services Department Director-General Norlizan Mohd Noor, who is responsible for issuing approved permits for importing chicken into Malaysia.

But the problem is deeper than described.

Malaysia, for example, has long been a victim of success in palm oil, crowding out food production.

Although the Agriculture and Food Industries Ministry has launched capacity development programmes, farming as a vocation for locals is very low, particularly among Malays – most are conditioned to aspire to work in the banking or government sector.

This is in great contrast to neighbouring Thailand, where many small holders are degree holders in agriculture and business, operating their farms as businesses.

State governments are doing little to allocate land to those in need of food production. Currently, 103,563ha of farmland are abandoned, making up 46,382 lots that cannot be utilised due to ownership issues in 2019 – this does not include idle or unused land in the hands of the government.

Land tenure and rising rents in farming areas like Cameron Highlands are major issues. Farmers across the country are being evicted by state land offices to make way for corporations, while vegetable cartels run protection rackets and politically connected companies are taking over the poultry industry. The use of foreign labour, with millions of undocumented aliens, is a major scandal that appears to be controlled by a well-connected politician.

Ukraine, in peacetime, is responsible for 12% of the global wheat supply.

The ingredients needed to create fertiliser are nitrate, potassium and, ironically, carbon dioxide, needed for the packaging/packing of the product. The fertiliser price hike is a global phenomenon. It hits the United States just as badly as Africa, Europe and the United Kingdom.

The price of fertiliser per tonne rose from £650 to £1000 in the UK as of May 6. Asia, Africa, Europe, Latin America and the US are all witnessing the same rise in the cost of production.

Indeed, this is a rise in a matter of two months, triggered by a war caused by the Russian military operation in Ukraine on February 24.

US President Joe Biden said Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot be a partner with whom he can work, both on and off the mike, and Russia is unable to control any new city in Ukraine except Kherson.

The Kremlin has succeeded in establishing a land corridor from Donbask and Ruhansk as of May 17, which it subjugated to its control since 2008, to pull Crimea and Port Mariupol into its sphere of influence.

But the European Union, US and 30 Nato members refused to relent. Allowing Putin to control this area is to allow him to control the price of European food production and consumption forever.

Indeed, even the Arab world and Israel import up to 50% of their food from Ukraine, as the European nation is famous for its mineral-rich “black soil”. What can Malaysia do then?

European farmers said they may offset the price hikes by buying less fertiliser for cereal crops this season, potentially leading to lower production at a time when there is a threat to supplies from Ukraine. Europe’s agricultural inflation is real.

Although Asians do not consume as much barley, corn, cereal, oatmeal or wheat, these are things which Malaysia does import in the form of animal feed.

Therefore local consumers and producers will also face imported agricultural and fertiliser inflation.

Some European farmers may try to use more organic fertiliser by partnering with livestock producers or those running anaerobic digesters to try to offset the price hike. But whatever Europe does, it is producing everything on the back of higher costs of fertiliser and organic fertiliser, said the World Bank.

Malaysia, with its weak national economy and increasingly wild and turbulent weather, may see local famers not having the risk appetite to plant more at all. This is due to the risk of being hit by severely bad weather, or one that can wipe out their entire production.

Malaysian farmers will also plant less and make less fertiliser, even if prices appear to be on an uptick.

When local fertiliser supply and food production become more acute and severe, then it will be the classic situation of “too much money chasing too few goods” – a problem that leads to imported inflation.

The latter is happening because the country has over-emphasised the importance of industrial production, such as building a national car, rather than ensuring a stable supply of locally produced food and livestock.

Hence, the dire need for a comprehensive food security policy now. – May 20, 2022.

* Rais Hussin is CEO and president of Emir Research, an independent think tank focused on strategic policy recommendations based on rigorous research.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.