Is opposition’s big tent just a pipe dream?


FOR those who aspire and yearn for a better Malaysia, the general election and its subsequent results on May 9, 2018, were a historic event – the whole political system and its structures experienced what was hitherto thought as near impossible, i.e. the downfall of the hegemonic Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN) that had ruled the country since its independence in 1957.

The federal government and corridors of power have always been synonymous with BN and Umno, whose political supremacy and domination were premised on consociationalism or power-sharing arrangement underpinned by ethnic majoritarianism.

Pakatan Harapan (PH), then comprising Amanah, Bersatu, DAP, PKR and Warisan, managed to win a simple majority – 121 out of the 222 parliamentary seats.

The political landscape has, however, changed dramatically since then following the Sheraton Move in February 2020.

Bersatu left PH to join forces with former nemeses, PAS and Umno. East Malaysian parties – Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) led by PBB, as well as PBS, PBRS and Star – also threw their support into the political realignment.

Muhyiddin Yassin, who was sworn in as 8th prime minister effective March 1, 2020, saw his term lasting for only 17 months. He had to resign when Umno pulled its support from his administration.

Ismail Sabri Yaakob was then subsequently made 9th prime minister from August 21, 2021.

Although BN and Perikatan Nasional (PN) are both still part of the federal cabinet, this political arrangement continues to be fluid with reconfigurations – embodied by the respective coalitions “going solo” – at the state level as demonstrated in the Malacca and Johor polls.

Despite experiencing at least three-cornered fights for most of the state constituencies contested, BN still managed to secure more than two-thirds majority in Malacca and Johor.

On the other hand, PN managed to win only two and three state seats in Malacca and Johor, respectively.

As such, the call for all the opposition parties to unite under a “big tent” to fight BN in the 15th general election (GE15) has once again resurfaced after the pivotal defeat of PH and PN in both state elections.

While PH chose to sign the memorandum of understanding (MOU) on transformation and political stability with the current government, Muda, Pejuang and Warisan chose to sit out. Nonetheless, Muda collaborated with PH in the Johor polls and won the Puteri Wangsa state seat with a 7,114-vote majority in a six-cornered fight.

Post-Johor polls, political developments saw ex-Pandan MP Rafizi Ramli announcing his comeback to (active) politics. He is running for PKR deputy president in the party polls.

With his re-entry and assuming he becomes deputy president, will this alter and impact the future course and direction of PKR?

On another front, with the (unexpected) loss of deposits for all six Johor state seats, Warisan president Mohd Shafie Apdal acknowledged that cooperating with other parties will be the way forward. He stated his intention to pursue a smart partnership with any political party or coalition, including Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) and BN, come GE15.

DAP veteran and ex-strongman Lim Kit Siang also announced his retirement at the triennial DAP Congress. Lim Kit Siang – whose political career spanned an uninterrupted 60 years – indicated that he will not contest for any party position, parliamentary seat or state assembly seat in the next election(s).

Rafizi’s comeback and Kit Siang’s retirement (due to age) may be the two pieces of welcomed news for those who aspire and are hopeful for new blood to drive the political and policy-making process to bring about a national renaissance and resurgence to the next level.

But will this be enough to reverse the setbacks of the (main) opposition?

Over several state elections in the past months, we have seen that PH, especially PKR, winning less state seats than in GE14.

Therefore, it is still a long way to go for PKR to revert to its glory days – from the dawn of the Reformasi phenomenon in 1998 up until GE14 – as representing the high-water mark. In 1998, many Malaysians echoed Anwar’s charismatic call for the resignation of Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

As for DAP, although it managed to secure 10 out of the 14 seats contested during the Johor polls, it lost the largest vote share by 7.9% – from 20.7% in 2018 to 12.8% in 2022.

As political scientist Bridget Welsh said in her recent analysis in Malaysiakini, Johor Jaya, which used to be a “safe” DAP seat, witnessed a drastic fall in the majority votes obtained, i.e. from 15,965 votes in 2018 to 1,922 votes.

Intriguingly, Muda and Warisan did not clash in any seat during the Johor polls. However, it is still too early to say whether Warisan will find other coalition partners to contest alongside in the subsequent elections.

And will Muda continue to work together with PH instead of Warisan during the next national polls?

At the end of the day, what the people are most concerned with is still the “tummy” economy, such as cost of living, employment and income.

By showing that it is constantly listening to the people’s concerns and worries, PH will be able to truly reset and rejuvenate the political agenda for reforms and provide a meaningful alternative national narrative that will inspire voters once again.

In addition to Muda, Pejuang and Warisan can still potentially join forces and team up with PH – resulting in a higher chance to beat BN in GE15. – May 19, 2022.

* Amanda Yeo is research analyst at Emir Research, an independent think tank focused on strategic policy recommendations based on rigorous research.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.


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