SARAWAK’S disparate opposition parties would have to set aside their differences if they are to achieve any kind of agreement over how to share the state’s key parliamentary seats, analysts said.

Talk has it that the 15th general election could be held soon after the anti-hopping law is passed in July, and DAP has initiated talks with Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB) to plan how to stop Gabungan Parti Sarawak from strolling to a win.

The state-based PSB, on the other hand, said the party and pro-independence Parti Bumi Kenyalang (PBK) “will enter into a written memorandum of understanding (MOU) soon” on how they will share seats in the GE.

DAP and PSB are focusing on Chinese-majority urban seats.

“The problem with DAP and PSB is that both parties are chasing the same urban seats. They know these urban seats are winnable seats.

“But the question is: who flies the flag?” James Chin, University of Tasmania’s Asian governance expert, said.

Chin said past trends show urban seats are the most winnable for the opposition.

“So obviously it is very difficult for either DAP or PSB to give up these winnable seats,” Chin told The Malaysian Insight.

In the last 2018 general election, DAP not only retained all five of their “traditional Chinese majority urban seats” - Bandar Kuching (Kelvin Yii), Stampin (Chong Chieng Jen), Sibu (Alice Lau), Lanang (Oscar Ling and Sarikei (Wong Ling Biu) - they also made a breakthrough in the bumiputera areas by winning the Bidayuh-majority seat of Mas Gading in Bau.

DAP however failed to make an impression in the Bumiputera seats of Serian, Mukah, Kapit, Bintulu and Lawas.

PSB in 2018 was a Barisan Nasional-friendly party. PSB quit being an ally to GPS in 2019 and contested in the 2021 state elections on its own.

Its claim to fame was that its presence split the Chinese vote and contributed to DAP losing its strongholds Bukit Assek and Pelawan to GPS.

Bukit Assek is one of two state seats – the other being Dudong – that make up the Lanang parliamentary constituency while Pelawan is one of three state seats that make up the bigger Sibu parliamentary constituency.

The other two are Bawang Assan and Nangka.

The losses meant DAP’s claim to Lanang and Sibu in their talks with PSB is tenuous at best as both the state seats that make up Lanang - Bukit Assek ( Joseph Chieng) and Dudong (Tiong King Sing) – are held by GPS reps while the three state seats that make up Sibu – Bawang Assan (Wong Soon Koh), Pelawan (Michael Tiang) and Nangka (Annuar Rapaee) – are all held by non-DAP assemblymen.

Wong is from PSB while Tiang and Annuar are GPS reps.

Chin said while the electorates should brace themselves for another long drawn out talk like that in the state election, they should also remember the adage “in politics, anything is possible”.

Nonetheless, Chin admitted for DAP and PSB to get the agreement could be extremely difficult as DAP had shown in the past, even to their Pakatan Harapan colleague PKR, they would not negotiate on their traditional Chinese seats.

“DAP will not give up the core Chinese seats, otherwise their Chinese support will collapse,” Chin said.

Spanner in the works

University of Malaysia Sabah’s political expert Lee Kuok Tiung said merely agreeing to share seats does not guarantee a victory.

Lee is in consonant with Chin and said Sarawak opposition parties agreeing to unite and engineer a straight fight would not be easy.

He said the egos of party leaders would stand in the way.

“If they can unite and work together against GPS, surely it will give them an advantage.”

But that would still not be enough, he added.

To pull off the win, Lee said all the parties involved need to work together and campaign together in the constituency.

“It involves cooperation from all the parties that have agreed to work together. They have to go shoulder to shoulder.

“The same goes for support in terms of campaign funding.”

Still, Lee said, things might not go according to plan.

Other parties not in the arrangement might, like the proverbial saying, “throw the spanner in the works”

“Sarawak has many parties now. If only two or three parties work together, it is difficult too because the others will be disruptive as well.”

Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya said the Sarawak opposition need to make an attempt at working together particularly in areas where they have a chance of winning.

“If they can reduce the friction among themselves, then they would be able to give some sort of viable challenge to the GPS which is too strong after their big and historic win in the state election.”

On PSB holding separate talks with DAP and PBK, Chin said he sees more difficulties for PSB there.

“Juggling two MOUs (with DAP and PBK) is very, very difficult, especially in the Sarawak context.”

Chin said only two alliances are feasible for PSB.

“Make one with all the Sarawak based parties or have one only with PH.” – May 14, 2022.