NURUL Izzah Anwar’s contention that Pakatan Harapan (PH) will need a decade to return to power is a realistic assessment based on the country’s current political situation, analysts said.

PH’s policies, which are more open, is a disadvantage to the coalition as this prevents more conservative Malays who still buy into race-based politics to go with it, they said.

They also said PH’s losses in the Malacca and Johor elections show that the coalition is at its weakest, but it does not automatically mean that Barisan Nasional (BN) and Umno are stronger.

Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim’s leadership is also not the sole reason for the coalition’s failure, they added.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia political analyst Mazlan Ali said PH’s ideologies are difficult for the Malays to accept.

“While there is digital transformation, the characteristic of Malaysian politics is still race and religion,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

“It is difficult for PH, which is more open in terms of ideology, to be accepted by the majority of the people. The people still care about race and religion.

“The Malays still react badly when we talk about DAP. Only 10% are accepting while 90% are still conservative.

“That is why she said it will take 10 years to transform the political scene.”

In an interview with Sinar Harian, the former PKR vice-president said PH will need at least 10 more years or two general elections to return to government.

Nurul Izzah, like her PH colleague, Rafizi Ramli, said the coalition needs to become an opposition group “with dignity” and offer voters something different but more practical than it did in 2018.

She said there will be no quick fix for PH to rebuild public trust, noting that the coalition’s inability to deliver on its 2018 manifesto promises as a crucial factor.

International Islamic University Malaysia’s Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar said Nurul Izzah’s comments are realistic.

“She is right in saying that PH is weaker, but BN is also not necessarily growing stronger,” he said.

Tunku Mohar said PH is also in dire need of new agendas and policies to put forth to the people.

“She is also probably right in suggesting that PH needs to showcase a different product, something it failed to do in its first attempt,” he said.

“It has a lot of convincing to do. People seem to be comfortable with old politics because the new politics PH projected is quite vague.”

In the 14th general election (GE14) and in the last two state elections, PH had banked on highlighting corruption to win votes.

While its tactic in using 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) issue and former prime minister Najib Razak in GE14 gave it a historic win, it fell flat in Johor and Malacca where analysts say people were more concerned about bread-and-butter issues.

Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said PH’s win the first time around was due to luck and Umno’s failed strategy.

However, such luck will not repeat itself in the next general election.

“The fact that PH was able to claim Putrajaya in 2018 was because of a few factors, such as 1MDB and, more importantly, Umno used the wrong strategy by trying to divide PH’s vote by using PAS. But PAS ended up dividing Umno’s votes instead,” said Oh.

“You could say PH was lucky to have won 2018 and such luck is no more because now, the Malays are ‘awake’.”

He said most Malays who voted for PH in GE14 have come to the realisation that the coalition may not have their best interest at heart.

“They realise that under PH, their special rights and privileges may not be adequately protected, therefore, they have reverted to Umno,” he said.

“That sort of fear will not recede for a long time.”

Anwar not the only one at fault

All three analysts said while Anwar, as the leader of the opposition, has to shoulder the blame for PH’s failure, he is not entirely at fault.

Mazlan said the people, too, are at fault for PH’s failure.

“Anwar didn’t fail totally, but people failed to change. Why? Because Malaysian politics is still old politics,” he said. 

“People play up racial and religious issues. Malaysians are still poor and it is hard for them to survive, so they depend on the government and certain parties.”

Unlike in Thailand and Indonesia where the people completely reject corrupt leaders, Malaysians are more accepting, he said.

“In Thailand and Indonesia, they (corrupt politicians) don’t stand a chance. The people there don’t accept them,” he said.

“In Malaysia, these people thrive. It shows Malaysians’ mentality and that is also why we are lagging behind in the global arena.”

Tunku Mohar said collectively, PH, as a coalition, has failed, especially when it was in power.

“Collectively, PH failed to strategise its rule when it was in power. More basic than that was its misplaced trust in Bersatu,” he said.

“Anwar’s failure was mainly in managing his supporters, mainly a group of senior party members who were loyal to him before his release from jail.

“That weakness was successfully manipulated by Anwar’s rivals outside the party in getting them to switch allegiance.”

PH was ousted after 22 months in power when Bersatu left the coalition in what was dubbed the Sheraton Move.

Oh said Anwar and PH had made various claims and promises, none of which it fulfilled, which is why it is where it is now. – April 15, 2022.