An alliance between former partners PKR and Bersatu for the 15th general election (GE15) would be perceived as a desperate move, political observers said.

Such a pact is likely after both parties suffered heavy defeats in the recent Malacca and Johor polls, they said.

Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said the pendulum could swing either way if cooperation materialises.

“This is indeed a desperate move by PKR and Bersatu, both of which saw devastating defeats in Malacca and Johor (and for PKR, in Sarawak too).

“Both parties would undoubtedly lose some of their traditional supporters who are unhappy with their teaming up despite ideological differences.

“It remains to be seen if this loss of support would be made up with the increased support that could be derived from such an alliance.

“But as desperation goes, you tend to try all and sundry under the sun to try to get out of your predicament,” Oh told The Malaysian Insight.

On Sunday, PKR secretary-general Saifuddin Nasution Ismail was quoted as saying that they have not closed the door on cooperating with Bersatu in GE15.

He said PKR was open to discussions with any political party, and not just Bersatu, in preparation for the general election.

International Islamic University of Malaysia’s Dr Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar said that nothing is certain until a move to cooperate is initiated.

He believes that PKR keeping their options open to work with Bersatu, who were once part of Pakatan Harapan (PH), is to draw the Malay vote, which he thinks PKR lacks.

“So far, we don’t see PKR initiating any contact. It only said, it is keeping its options open. Only if it reaches out to Bersatu can we say that it is desperate.

“That said, PKR knows by now that it does not have much Malay support and it must do something about it,” Tunku Mohar said.

Tunku Mohar, however, said the past might still haunt PH supporters and the decision to cooperate will not be accepted.

He said this could instead swing the votes, in favour of Umno and Barisan Nasional (BN).

“PH and Bersatu could defeat BN but the math is not straightforward.”

“PH’s supporters, especially, might not forgive what Bersatu did to them, and may not turn out to vote.

“On the other hand, some of those Malays who equate PH to DAP may change their vote from Bersatu to Umno,” Tunku Mohar added.

Hisommudin Bakar, executive director of Ilham Centre, echoed Tunku Mohar’s views, saying that PH could not just bank on the non-Malay votes to win the next election.

Citing the previous state elections, Hisommudin, the former private secretary to Saifuddin Nasution, when the latter was the Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs minister, said that a multi-cornered contest, especially with the opposition splitting, could give BN an easy victory and that the talks of cooperation could be to avoid clashes.

“PH seems to be aware that without sufficient Malay support, PH will be in trouble and are only expecting non-Malay votes to win.

“This development shows the openness of PH to negotiations after losing badly in several state elections. The people’s referendum clearly proves that BN’s victory was contributed by the split of the two opposition blocs, which proved to be detrimental.

“Bersatu president (Muhyiddin Yassin) held a meeting with (Pejuang chairman) Dr Mahathir Mohamad and (PH chairman) Anwar Ibrahim to find a solution to avoid clashes among them when facing BN in GE15,” he said.

In early April, former Prime Minister Muhyiddin said he took the initiative to meet Dr Mahathir after several opposition leaders suggested that some kind of political cooperation had to be forged to avoid multi-cornered fights at GE15.

In 2018, PH created history after it ousted ruling coalition BN from the federal government.

However, PH’s stint in Putrajaya was cut short to 22 months after several MPs of the coalition, namely Bersatu and PKR, pulled their support from the then government following the infamous “Sheraton Move”.

Muhyiddin was then appointed prime minister with a majority supporting him, including MPs of BN.

Muhyiddin then formed Perikatan Nasional, which composed Bersatu, PAS, STAR, Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) and Gerakan.

BN component parties did not join the coalition but became partners to support the government.

Last year, Muhyiddin resigned after just 17 months, after he had lost majority support in Parliament. Ismail Sabri Yaakob of Umno was then appointed as prime minister.

Not all will want the cooperation

Oh said that if at all there is a cooperation between PH and Bersatu, then not all component parties will be happy about it.

He said if PH has to align with PAS, a former ally to Pakatan Rakyat and now sworn enemy to PH, then they might suffer huge loss of support, adding that any cooperation might need to exclude PAS.

“Aligning with PAS would indeed bring about a huge loss of support for all the PH component parties, as PAS, which was their former partner, has gone rogue by pandering to extremism and away from moderation since shortly after GE13.

“So ideally the proposed alliance should exclude PAS, which in any case may in turn not be very keen on working with PH,” he said.

Tunku Mohar on the other hand said that PH component parties DAP and Amanah might accept to work with Bersatu, who was part of their coalition during GE14, but claimed they might want PAS and the rest out of the picture.

Referring to Saifuddin’s recent statement, he said that the PKR secretary-general could have purposely named Bersatu, while excluding others.

“I think when Saifuddin mentioned only Bersatu, he did it intentionally, and hence, sidelining PAS.

“Some elements in DAP and Amanah may be convinced to accept Bersatu, if such reconciliation indeed takes place, but they won’t be agreeable to cooperation with PAS.

“That said, with Bersatu having former PKR leaders in its ranks, it is difficult to imagine that a cooperation between the two parties can materialise. But then again, everything is possible in politics,” he said.

Hisommudin also said that besides Bersatu, the other PN component parties are very quiet about the possibilities of an election pact.

“The movement to explore political cooperation in this election (electoral pact) is only done by Bersatu. So far, it is not clear what is the stance of PAS and other PN component parties.”

Hisommudin also cited another problem that could arise from the potential partnership, which is the candidate for prime minister.

He said without a clear guarantee of government formation in the imagination of voters, it is quite impossible for the opposition to overcome BN’s image of stability. – April 14, 2022.