FRANCE today voted in the first round of a presidential election projected to produce a run-off rematch between incumbent Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen that will be far tighter than their duel five years ago.

Polls opened in mainland France at 0600 GMT, after an unusual campaign overshadowed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that analysts warned can lead to unpredictable outcomes with turnout a major factor.

French overseas territories already voted yesterday to take account of the time difference, starting with the tiny island of Saint Pierre and Miquelon off the coast of Canada, territories in the Caribbean, followed by French Pacific islands.

Polls predict that Macron will lead Le Pen by a handful of percentage points in round one, with the top two going through to a second round vote on April 24.

Far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon is snapping at their heels in third place and still fancies his chances of reaching the second round at the expense of Le Pen or even – in what will be an extraordinary upset – President Macron himself.

Although her opponents accuse her of being an extremist bent on dividing society, Le Pen has sought to show a more moderate image and concern with voters’ daily worries such as rising prices with some success during the campaign.

By contrast, Macron has campaigned relatively little, by his own admission entering the election campaign later than he would have wished due to the war in Ukraine.

French television channels will broadcast projections of the final results, which are generally highly accurate, as soon as polls close at 1800 GMT today.

The stakes of the election are high for Macron, who, at 39, came to power as France’s youngest president with a pledge to shake up the country.

He will be the first French president since Jacques Chirac in 2002 to win a second term and thus cement a place in the country’s history.

If he wins, he will have a five-year mandate to impose his vision of reform, which will include a crack at reducing the pension age in defiance of union anger.

He will also seek to consolidate his position as the undisputed number one in Europe after the departure of German chancellor Angela Merkel.

A Le Pen victory will be seen as a triumph for right-wing populism and send shockwaves across markets and Europe.

For his European supporters, Macron is a centrist bulwark against populism, especially after election victories by the right-wingers Hungarian premier Viktor Orban and Serbian leader Aleksandar Vucic, who both have cordial ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, last weekend.

Republican front?

The candidates of France’s traditional parties, the right-wing Republicans and left-wing Socialists, are facing a debacle on election night, continuing a shake-up of French politics that began when Macron took power.

Greens candidate Yannick Jadot, the Republicans’ Valerie Pecresse and flagging Socialist’s Anne Hidalgo appear certain to be ejected in the first round.

Far-right former TV pundit Eric Zemmour made a stunning entry into the campaign last year but has since lost ground, and analysts said he aided Le Pen by making her appear more moderate.

Much attention is already turning to the second round and question of who will win the backing of the defeated first-round hopefuls.

Analysts questioned whether Macron will enjoy the same support from a broad anti-far right “Republican front” coalition that helped him win in 2017, and that allowed Jacques Chirac to demolish Marine Le Pen’s father Jean-Marie in 2002.

“The Republican front has not been what it used to be for a while,” said the director of the Jean-Jaures Foundation, Gilles Finchelstein. – AFP, April 10, 2022.