BARISAN Nasional (BN) stands to win at least 35 of the 56 seats in the Johor polls tomorrow, predicted the Ilham Centre, making the coalition a front runner to form the state government.

It said this is based on its survey involving 1,391 respondents conducted in the state from February 18 to March 7.

It found that several factors, including fractures among opposition parties, will give BN the edge over its political rivals.

These include the state’s demographics and geography, voter psychology, multi-cornered fights and a likely low voter turnout.

“Ilham predicts that BN will win at least 35 seats, while Pakatan Harapan (PH) should comfortably win 10,” said the consultancy agency.

“PH and PKR look lifeless as if they have lost their way in countering BN after losing in the Malacca and Sarawak polls (last year).

“Another 11 seats are too close to call.”

These 11 seats are Bekok, Endau, Kemelah, Kempas, Kota Iskandar, Paloh, Parit Yaani, Puteri Wangsa, Simpang Jeram, Tangkak and Yong Peng.

Ilham said in Endau, Paloh and Simpang Jeram, voters may like the candidates, but not their parties.

In the remaining seats, it added, Chinese voters have showed reluctance to come out to vote and Malay votes may be split between BN and PN.

The survey found that the three main coalitions – BN, PH and Perikatan Nasional – will be the ones claiming most of the ballots, while smaller parties will not have much impact.

Voters working and living in Singapore have also informed their families in Malaysia that they do not plan to return to exercise their rights.

“The vote-splitting among Malay voters will determine the outcome,” said Ilham, adding that close-call seats may see only 55% of Chinese voters participating in the polls.

Demography and locality

In terms of demography, there are 16 constituencies consisting of more than 70% Malay voters, 23 with 50%-69% Malay voters and 17 with less than 50% Malay voters.

Ilham said of these constituencies, 20 are rural, 23 suburban and 13 urban.

The centre expects BN to dominate in seats where the voter base is more than 50% Malay.

“For example, while PN has a lot of support in Bukit Gambir, it still cannot surpass the number of Malay votes needed to win.

“In terms of psychographic parameters, in BN stronghold Endau, PN’s candidate is still capable of challenging BN as voters there are critical about the candidates.”

Most Malay voters lean towards issues pertaining to government stability, and less towards moralistic issues such as corruption, integrity and leadership.

While PN may not be as popular as BN, Ilham found that its chairman Muhyiddin Yassin still has a strong influence among voters.

“A total of 43% of voters admit that he has influence in the state. This will help PN become BN’s number one rival in the polls, especially in Malay-majority areas.”

While PN has Muhyiddin, BN is relying on the Najib-Razak factor to win votes, it added.

“He (Najib) has displayed certain uncanniness to voters. MCA, too, has relied on his popularity to break DAP’s hold on Chinese voters.

“It is as if the former prime minister is not embroiled in any scandal or has he been charged in court,” it said of Najib, who has been convicted and sentenced in a trial related to 1Malaysia Development Bhd, and is awaiting his appeal.

New voters not loyal to any party

On new and young voters, Ilham said their choices will be influenced by local culture.

The Johor polls will see 869,362 (33.5%) people vote for the first time following the implementation of the automatic voter registration and Undi18.

“This group’s voting trend will be based on local culture and family traditions as it does not have a strong handle on politics yet.

“Its focus post-lockdown is on its livelihood and not the power struggle among politicians.

“We cannot deny that there will be a low voter turnout among this group, which means it will not have any significant impact on any party.” – March 11, 2022.