JOHOR folk are set to cast their ballots in the state elections on Saturday, and they can well decide the direction of politics in Malaysia.

Should Barisan Nasional (BN) bag a big win again, the coalition may call for more state elections – likely in Kedah and Perak – as it claimed victory in the last four since 2018 or speed up the next general election (GE), according to the opposition.

BN and Perikatan Nasional (PN) turned the tables on Warisan by winning 38 out of 73 state seats in the Sabah polls in September 2020. BN followed this up with a landslide victory in the Malacca polls in November, when it won 21 out of 28 state seats.

Gabungan Parti Sarawak boasted a huge win less than a month later, claiming 76 out of 82 state seats in Sarawak.

A total of 2.59 million voters are now eligible to vote this Saturday, following the implementation of automatic voter registration and Undi18.

As early voters cast their ballots tomorrow, here is a brief summary of the first week of campaigning.

Barisan Nasional

Umno is focusing its election campaign on rural areas, despite fielding candidates in six urban seats spanning from Kulai to Tebrau.

Umno is facing a resurgence in rural areas, backed by Felda settlements, enjoying big crowds whenever its heavy hitters – former president Najib Razak, current president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and veteran Shahrir Abdul Samad – go down to the ground.

In GE14, BN won 18 out of the 20 rural seats in Johor.

Meanwhile, BN is relying on caretaker menteri besar Hasni Mohammad’s friendly image to win votes in urban areas and holding huge government functions to relay its messages.

Among coalition ministers spotted in the state are Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob, Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin, Transport Minister Wee Ka Siong and Federal Territories Minister Shahidan Kassim.

BN is maintaining its Malacca pitch, which is political stability and better economic development for Johor. It released its manifesto on March 1.

Perikatan Nasional

PN does not have many recognisable pitchers in Johor, besides Muhyiddin Yassin. One voter was surprised when he was told that the former prime minister is from Bersatu.

However, the pact has some traction in urban areas, where many Malays spoke positively about “Abah”.

As such, PN is, again, relying on Muhyiddin’s image to carry it through the polls.

The pact is confining its activities to walkabouts, as well as minister appearances and functions.

Its campaign consists of “poster boy” Muhyiddin, attacking Najib and reviving Johor. It is not attacking BN, as both are partners in Putrajaya, or Pakatan Harapan (PH).

PN released its manifesto on March 2, promising free water and rent for government-owned properties.

Pakatan Harapan

PH has returned to its tried-and-tested ceramah to woo voters following the relaxation of campaigning rules.

The speeches started off slow at first, but gained momentum over the weekend as heavy hitters Anwar Ibrahim, Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, Lim Kit Siang, Lim Guan Eng, Nga Kor Ming and Mohamad Sabu arrive to work the ground and rally the troops.

Due to Covid-19 concerns and standard operating procedures limiting the crowd size to only 100 people, the ceramah now are nowhere near the thousands-strong crowd it used to pull in 2018.

The coalition continues to highlight BN and Najib’s scandals, and now PN – the pact it says is responsible for bringing Umno back to power.

Pejuang

Pejuang chairman Dr Mahathir Mohamad caused a brief stir when he went against his doctor’s advice to campaign in Johor, but the attention has mainly been confined to him.

The party has limited its activities to walkabouts, despite fielding candidates in 42 seats.

Pejuang is also focusing on Najib’s scandals and PN’s betrayal of the voters’ mandate. It was the first to release its manifesto on February 23.

Muda

Muda, the new kid on the block, is piggybacking on PH, particularly DAP. It is still learning the ropes of real-world campaigning, and not confined to merely social media.

Despite lacking experience, Muda candidates have appeared at ceramah every night.

The party is promising to create high-quality jobs for youth and higher wages. It also questioned BN’s rationale for holding the state elections, as well as highlighted the coalition’s track record on corruption and PN’s role in bringing down the PH government.

Warisan

Warisan said it is not targeting opposition votes, but all the six seats in which it is contesting were won by PH in 2018.

The party has put up a three-storey banner of president Mohd Shafie Apdal in Bukit Batu, but has not held any ceramah. It is confining campaigning to distributing flyers and walkabouts.

Warisan’s core message is that it is a party for all and the “real” multiracial party.

Parti Bangsa Malaysia, Parti Sosialis Malaysia and Putera

PBM is focusing on local issues, while PSM is focusing on corruption and fairer wages. Little is known about Putera’s sole candidate Kamarolzaman Mohd Jidin in Semerah after nomination day. – March 7, 2022.