IF the only conclusion you can draw from the current Russia-Ukraine war is that Russian leader Vladimir Putin you is an irrational sociopathic bully who wants to conquer neighbouring countries to expand the Russian empire, you’ll be badly off course.

Imagine instead that Putin is rational and shrewd: a strongman and authoritarian. In his eyes, he sees an existential threat to his country because in the decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union, democratic and pro-West countries have mushroomed along the Russian border. 

In 1999, Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic joined Nato, amid Russian opposition. Nato saw another expansion with the accession of seven Central and Eastern European countries: Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.

With Nato membership came military installations and missiles edging closer to Moscow. In June 2020, Ukraine became a partner (not a member) to Nato. 

In Putin’s words, if missiles were to be installed in Ukraine, they could hit Moscow within 10 minutes. There are no natural geological formations along the Russia-Ukraine border. 

In a way, they share the same backyard. From Luhansk near the southeast Ukraine border, forces can travel 750km to Volgograd and cut off Russia from the Black Sea. 

Pro-Russian separatists have held the part of Ukraine along the Russian border. Donetsk and Luhansk even held elections in an attempt to exercise the international right to self-rule, to align itself with Russia but the Ukraine government in Kyiv and the US as rejected this as a Russian ploy. 

Does all this justify the invasion? Definitely not, especially in today’s world order. A young kid is waving a bread knife at a bully’s door saying that he has a new gang and the bully is taking out his shotgun. 

But why it is happening now? 

Following the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine has gained military might. Give Ukraine five to 10 more years and Russia would have to fight hard. 

Russia is Europe’s supplier of natural gas and energy costs are skyrocketing all over Europe. Why bite the hand that keeps you warm in winter? Of all these countries, Germany is affected most. 

Germany wants to transition to renewables and has committed to shut down its nuclear plants. Natural gas is a big part of the transition, and Germany and Russia are on the precipice of commissioning the Nordstrom 2 project – a natural gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea connecting the two countries. 

In the years that Angela Merkel was at the helm, Germany’s influence in Europe grew and often Merkel played a key role in bridging the interests of Europe and Russia. 

The Green Party, being part of Germany’s coalition government, now lead on foreign policy and climate policy – and a key European nation finds itself between a rock and a hard place. (Apparently, the only thing Germany sent to Ukraine during the first week of the war was a field hospital and 5,000 helmets. Even Turkey sent predator drones and Canada put boots on the ground).

Russia has been the target of crippling sanctions for almost a decade. Its people had to suffer through massive inflation while Putin moved the country away from relying on the US dollar – not easy when its main exports (oil and gas) are predominantly priced in US dollars. 

Why didn’t the disincentives work? Because for Russia, it’s an existential rather than an economic or conquest issue. 

Also, on February 21, Russia’s ally, China, flew 39 warplanes into Taiwan’s air defence zone. Why? So that the US will have to contend with possibly two major war theatres in two separate parts of the other side of the Earth. And Biden’s bark is worse than his bite.

Conveniently, Putin waited for China to be done with the Winter Olympics before executing the war. 

What could have been done to prevent this conflagration? 

This escalation has been decades in the making and there was never any quick fix. But when someone decided to draw a line in the sand years ago – Nato and non-Nato – those lines were created in anticipation of conflict. 

So, why is anyone surprised? Who would have listened to anyone advocating for de-escalation and for Nato to be phased out while nations invested instead in diplomacy centred on energy co-operation?

What’s next? 

Russia will likely make inroads into Ukraine but experts suggest that it would not be viable for Russia to conquer and hold the whole country. They might take a sizeable chunk as leverage for negotiations. 

Russia wants a commitment to Nato de-escalation. In exchange, they will “retreat” but will most likely hold on to Donetsk and Luhansk. 

Now, the remaining tools in the economic sanctions arsenal involve hitting Russia on the oil and gas exports – which is where Europe will feel hardest hit. 

Strategically, the US would prefer an all-out economic war rather than a physical one, which is why Biden (and even Obama) has said that Nato allies must be willing to suffer the effects of the sanctions as well but that they are a “necessary” response to Russia’s unilateral actions. 

If parties are not willing to give Russia what it wants, the conflict will likely continue. Economic warfare might spill over to cyber warfare. And excessive sanctions have become the prelude to physical warfare in the past. 

If you push any country into a corner such that the only choice that remains is between starvation/death and fighting, that’s not much of a choice, isn’t it? 

De-escalate Nato. Hold enough arms to have an effective detente in place. Ukraine needs to accept a neutral stance that allows its democratic, pro-West citizens to unify with the Russian-leaning ones. 

Form multilateral cooperation on energy exports and technology exchange. Get Russia reliant on your countries. That’s how you build peace. 

It’s a mindset shift, which should be embraced even by world bodies. But we are still calling it the UN Security Council and not the UN Peace Council. We are not there yet. 

It’s easier to demonise than to understand, empathise and align. We do the former all the time – even here in Singapore and Malaysia, wherever there are lines drawn. Peace is hard work and often ridiculed. – March 6, 2022.

* Firdaus Daud reads The Malaysian Insight.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.