AS the cloak of the pandemic lifts, Johor has called for elections where campaigning now is at full steam, ahead of polling day on March 12. 

In politics, where timing is everything, the upcoming Johor elections has much more at stake than what meets the eye.

And as pressure mounts in the game of numbers, one must have a cobra-like patience to wait for the precise moment to pounce on your prey; that agile ability to play a long waiting game is essential, if not a condition precedent to winning this election.

Snipers know and yearn for this exact, exquisite moment, or rather for the feel of it – the stasis when sound dissipates into silence and thoughts distill into mindlessness. It is almost meditative and in absolute silence; that second just before they pull the trigger.

Now, Barisan Nasional (BN) needs to find that elusive stasis before it hits the opponent in the ultimate battle of the 15^th general election (GE15). Meanwhile, Pakatan Harapan (PH) must first put its divided house in order after an embarrassing outing at the Malacca elections in November.

It is the same Malacca elections that has fueled BN’s momentum after a winning streak in by-elections since GE14. Correspondingly, then Johor menteri besar Hasni Mohamad has wasted no time raising concern about Johor’s one-seat-majority state government.

When compounded with the fact that the one-seat majority belongs to Amanah, Hasni severely doubted BN’s ability to govern standing too close to the edge.

Youth vote

In Johor, where the relationship of the ruling party with the palace plays a vital role, Sultan Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar had given the nod to dissolve the state assembly in January. The large slice of time between then and the actual nomination day had paved the way for a long and toxic campaigning period.

But that is the expected ebb and flow of an election. What’s glaring this time around is that youth are eligible to vote for the first time after the implementation of Undi18.

When polling stations open across the state, a staggering 750,000 voters aged between 18 to 21 will vote for the first time – making up 30% or more than a quarter of Johor’s 2.4 million eligible voters. But what ticks them? Who are they voting for?

Ostensibly, the change in voters’ average age will require a shift in election strategies and campaign methods. But before that, we first must address the elephant in the room – that the youth voting trend around the world is still sporadic, showing unpredictable voting tendencies.

In Germany last year, young voters turned up in droves only to snub big, established parties in favour of two smaller groups. Both of the smaller parties cumulatively focused on climate change, social justice, a freer market, and personal liberties.

However, as the dust settled after the election, data showed that older voters still decided Germany’s future, even after the September election last year. This is because the demographic’s size was simply too overwhelming – 57% of all voters are above the age of 50 while 14% are under 30.

Even in a functioning democracy like Japan, its youth election turnout is still one of the lowest. Out of 41 developed economies surveyed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, it was found that issues like the generation gap, archaic campaigning methods, and a lack of awareness were reasons the youth refused to vote.

Perhaps it is best to look westward. In Zambia last year, the youth played a key role in their election with the highest youth voter turnout. But prior to that, Zambia had robustly engaged with the youth by providing them with platforms to learn about and practise governance. Those efforts bore fruit, and Zambia’s youth had more political awareness and more accurate information before voting.

Stability that never sets in

Looking back, these elections could serve as a double whammy for BN since Johor is both the birthplace and traditional bastion of Umno. BN had won (almost by convention) every state elections from 1959 until May 9, 2018.

But a lot has unravelled since 2018. In the days following PH’s victory, three Umno assemblymen broke rank to become independent representatives, leaving BN with a mortifying 16 state seats.

But PH’s choice of menteri besar, the late Osman Sapian, was reported as being pressured to step down amid whispers of him falling out with the palace. Sahruddin Jamal then took over, but the infighting did not stop in the southern corridors of power.

However, it was the Sheraton Move that broke the camel’s back, and saw the fall of PH’s short-lived governance of 22 months. Subsequently, a new state coalition government, comprising 28 lawmakers from BN, Perikatan Nasional (PN) and PAS with a simple majority, was formed in Johor.

Finally, in January, the state monarch consented to the dissolution of the Johor Legislative Assembly to pave the way for state polls. Hasni was the third menteri besar in less than two years, and clearly, stability remains a snark in this age and time.

The mandate in power play

Evidently, no one is buying Hasni’s one-seat-majority government as a reason to call for another election. To all and sundry, BN was pushing to prolong its grassroots feel-good factor after winning in Malacca (the catalyst for the Johor elections).

But in politics, reading between the lines is a skill one must possess to stay afloat. Apart from being the ultimate bellwether of GE15, Umno, too, is looking for an opportunity to bring those in power at Menara Dato’ Onn and Putrajaya back into its folds.

In an ecosystem where trust is always in deficit, Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan emerged with a headline that rang more like a reminder: “Win or lose in Johor, we will press Putrajaya for a general election.”

In one fell swoop, he had snubbed Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob in no uncertain terms: stay the course or face the music.

In the context of Horowitz’s house, one divided against itself cannot stand, and the sooner Ismail understands this, the better.

The alternative

In a different political spectrum, young Malaysians are getting increasingly frustrated over the continued dominance of ageing political elites. To avoid the file and rank practised by older generations, Muda was born on the ideals of modern-day democracy.

And it has some guts, too. Muda reached new heights when it entered discussions with DAP and Amanah and subsequently managed to walk away with six seats. Even though these seats are Bersatu and Umno’s strongholds, it appeared as though Muda tried to get a slice of the pie by way of negotiation – without robust visions in terms of governance and policymaking.

But we should not discount it – just look at how far it has come. As the first-ever youth-centric political party to focus on the youth agenda, it managed to raise RM2 million for flood victims – and it actually reported its expenditure in helping those in need – signalling a refreshing change in the management of political parties in Malaysia.

Muda could very well turn out to be a creative force in Malaysia’s political sphere. Proven as a constant dynamic source of innovations, youth throughout history have been an enabler of change in both political systems and economic opportunities.

As it is best to look before you leap, Muda must watch with whom it forms an alliance, or risk being subjected to political patronage. On a larger scale, the time is nigh to regulate political funding, but that is a story for a different day.

Rebuilding the southern shore

At the tail end of nomination day, it was clear that there are no straight fights this time around. What will transpire on polling day are seven three-cornered fights, 35 four-cornered fights, eight five-cornered fights, four six-cornered fights, and two seven-cornered fights.

Both BN and PN will be contesting all 56 state seats.

There will be 50 candidates from PH component parties, 42 from Pejuang, seven from Muda, six from Sabah-based party Warisan, and 16 independent candidates.

There are 202 male candidates and 37 female candidates, with the oldest aged 71 representing PN and the youngest at 26 years old representing grand old Umno and PN.

But ultimately, what do Johor folk want?

At present, Johor is already one of the states worst hit by the pandemic; its economy is in tatters. The pandemic, in general, has widened Malaysia’s existing inequalities, producing a generation of youth saddled with underemployment and stagnant wages and, in Johor, exorbitant price tags for housing.

Whoever wins on March 12 will need tothe ramp in hope of getting the economy up and running. However, it will take much more to implement complementary policies that would facilitate the full reopening of borders. A new normal is not around the corner.

No matter which political coalition forms the next state government, it ought not to destabilise or undermine the needs of Johor folk, especially during these trying times. Restoring economic livelihoods shall, and must remain, its number one priority.

Rocking the vote

For the state elections, the Election Commission is targeting a 70% voter turnout.

To date, the country has seen nine by-elections with five state seats (four federal seats and three state elections) after claiming a stunning victory in GE14, with the turnout at all by-elections lower than GE14 figures.

If we were to look at elections that were held in the shadow of Covid-19, the Sabah elections recorded a voter turnout of 66.6%, the Malacca elections concluded with an 89.9% turnout, while the Sarawak elections saw 60.67% of voters cast their ballots.

Declining voter turnouts may signal the root of a deeper problem within our democracy. It may suggest fewer citizens consider elections as the main instrument for decision-making and democratic representation.

But, this existential crisis also gives us an opportunity.

We have seen a rise in other forms of citizen activism (such as mass protests), occupy movements and increased use of social media as a new platform of political engagement. Such a shift in the channels of political participation, from voting for traditional bodies of representation to new forms of democratic participation and representation, puts serious pressure on governments and the way traditional political parties function.

The Election Commission issued the state election standard operating procedures last week where it was stated that ceramah, physical campaigning and door-to-door visits are allowed throughout the 14-day campaign period.

The seasoned elites may have it easier, coupled with well-oiled machinery, whereas the young must mobilise their crowds, relying on their social networks to encourage voting behaviour, particularly among those unlikely to cast a ballot. A friend will probably do a better job than a political advertisement or a social media plea.

It will also test the pearls of wisdom of the youth, whether the fundamental understanding of power separation between the federal government and state are clearly understood, and if the new political structure will take cognisance of Johor’s needs.

Would young Malaysians return to the ballot box to prove the elites wrong? We can only tell you that when the sun rises on March 13.

In a heterogeneous society like Malaysia, compounded with divisive political landscape, the need for a comprehensive political education is rather pressing. With this in mind, the youth must be equipped with political judgment, apathy and literacy. There is no one way to deal with this.

The future

Of course, we should not discount the youth and their power. But let’s be honest with ourselves: this election, centred on youth votes, would hardly cause any ripples, simply because, as Zambia has shown, civic awareness must first be ingrained into them.

The old dictum that there are no permanent enemies and no permanent friends has never rung more true than when it comes to Malaysian politics.

The would-be cobras saw ominous writings on the wall in Putrajaya; the same writing Ismail must quickly grasp: his days are numbered. And whenever he decides to call for GE15, he would be doing so at his own peril. – March 5, 2022.

* Elviza Michele Kamal and Yom Nurul Akma read The Malaysian Insight.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.