BARISAN Nasional (BN) will face a fierce fight from the opposition in Johor, Kedah and Sabah in the 14th general election (PRU14), said pollster Ibrahim Suffian.

And this was because in all three states, three-cornered fights will not give BN much advantage, said Ibrahim, the programme director of Merdeka Centre.

“In Sabah, it will be competitive because three-cornered fights will have a different impact there.

“There is a local party and a national party. And if they can accommodate each other, the polls will be competitive there,” Ibrahim said after a forum titled GE14 the polls, the money, the stakes at Gerakbudaya in Petaling Jaya last night.

Pakatan Harapan (PH), Parti Warisan Sabah and Parti Cinta Sabah (PCS) are already in talks to form a pact to oust BN in GE14.

A Merdeka Centre survey last month found that three-cornered fights among BN, PH and the PAS-led Gagasan Sejahtera would be disadvantageous to the ruling coalition.

In Johor, Ibrahim said PAS is traditionally weak, adding that three-cornered fights will have no effect on PH.

“Johor will be interesting because PAS is relatively weak there.

“If their (PH) campaign is carried out well in Johor, it may shift the tide in favour of the opposition, but time is short.”

Johor is also the birthplace of Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin, who was sacked from Umno because of his criticism of the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal.

In Kedah, the PH chairman and candidate for prime minister, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, has a huge influence in the state, Ibrahim said.

“The question is will his huge influence transfer to votes.”

In GE13, BN won the state from PAS under the leadership of Dr Mahathir’s son, Mukhriz, who became the Kedah menteri besar.

In 2016, Mukhriz had to step down because Kedah Umno no longer supported him after he criticised Prime Minister Najib Razak over the 1MDB issue.

Ibrahim said at this point of time, a majority of Malaysians have already decided who they would vote in GE14.

“Based on the data we have, the majority of voters have decided and are just waiting for Parliament to be dissolved.

“Only a small number of voters are still on the fence and have yet to make a decision. But their number is small compared with those whose votes are needed by certain coalitions to make a big impact.” – February 9, 2018.