PAKATAN Harapan is unlikely to wrest Johor in the next elections despite making inroads into urban and semi-urban areas, an ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute report said.

“Assuming that they (Pakatan) are able to retain their current constituencies and take all urban and semi-urban areas, this would yield an additional four seats (Tebrau, Johor Baru, Pulai and Pasir Gudang) at the parliamentary level.

“And should they take the remaining two competitive mixed and rural seats of Labis and Segamat, this would yield 12 out of a total 26 (federal) seats,” Dr Francis E. Hutchinson said in the report.

In 2013, Pakatan Rakyat (DAP, PKR and PAS) took five (Bakri, Kulai, Batu Pahat, Gelang Patah and Kluang) of the 26 federal seats and tripled its number of state seats from six to 18.

The new PH added one more federal seat (Pagoh) when Bersatu joined the coalition last year.

At the state level, a swing to Pakatan is conceivable, but exceptionally difficult, said Hutchinson, a senior fellow with the ISEAS regional economic studies and Malaysia studies programmes.

“Of the 37 seats currently in BN hands, 11 are competitive. Of these, eight are held by Umno, and one each by Gerakan, MCA and MIC. The remaining 26 largely rural and Malay-majority seats were retained with very solid margins.

“BN won seats such as Senili and Penawar with more than 85% of the vote. While some smaller heartland seats, such as Parit Raja, Tanjong Puteri, and Buloh Kasap, registered falls of more than 10% for the ruling coalition in 2013, their support levels were still above 60%.

“This means that for BN to retain Johor, it only needs to retain its core of 26 seats and then win three additional constituencies.”

Strong track record

Hutchinson said there are three reasons Barisan Nasional still has the upper hand in Johor despite its similarities with states, such as Penang and Selangor, already in PH hands.

“Its track record in Johor has been outstanding. BN secured a clean sweep in 10 out of the 12 elections during this period (1959-2008). In the other two elections, it lost one seat, Kluang, to DAP in 1978 and another, Bakri, to the same party in 2008.

“This performance by BN is unmatched in other large peninsular states, such as Selangor and Perak, which witnessed significant opposition inroads as early as 1969. Other elections which saw large national reversals for BN, such as 1990, 1999, and 2008, also had a muted effect in Johor,” he added.

One of the reasons is that BN works as a coalition of different ethnic groups, which allows it to match candidates with the demographic profile of many constituencies, he said.

“In addition, the grouping’s effective internal bargaining mechanisms are able to convince a substantial number of voters to vote across ethnic lines for their local BN representative. 

“The effectiveness of this mechanism is magnified by Malaysia’s FPTP (first-past-the-post) electoral system, malapportionment, and favourable re-delineation lines.”

This is due to Umno’s historical identity with the state and how the party grassroots are closely knitted with Johor’s voters.

The second reason, Hutchinson said, is due to PAS’ weakness in the state, as religion is shaped by royalty.

And the last reason is because of BN’s handling of Felda settlements in Johor where it has been the most efficient.

“The local administration’s processing of land claims were done more quickly than elsewhere, with Johor being one of only two states to completely allocate all targeted settlers on schedule.

“This efficiency was further enabled by good access between the state government and Felda, due to the agency’s second and third chairmen, Taib Andak and Musa Hitam – who were Johoreans who collectively ran the agency from 1958 to 1972.”

The success of the programme and its association with BN has translated into exceptionally high levels of support among Felda areas in Johor, he said.

“In 2013, 86% of voters in Felda districts in the 21 state seats voted for BN, versus 73%-78% in Selangor, Kedah, Malacca, Perak and Negri Sembilan; and 61%-67% in Kelantan, Pahang, and Terengganu,” he added. – February 9, 2018.