NEWCOMERS to the Johor elections are not likely to cause great upsets as voters prefer a coalition that can form a stable government, analysts said.

They said parties such as Pejuang, Warisan, Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM) and even Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM) are unlikely to gather much support from Johor voters to form a stable administration.

Although it is part of democracy, they added the newcomers would only hinder the opposition’s chances to win against Barisan Nasional (BN), one of the major established pacts in these elections.

BN lines up against Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH), the latter of which has a deal with Muda as its strategic partner.

The EC has set polling day for March 12 and early voting on March 8.

Some 239 candidates have been registered for the Johor polls, with BN and PN fielding hopefuls in all 56 constituencies, followed by PH (50), Pejuang (42), Muda (7), Warisan (6), PBM (4), Putra (1) and PSM (1), plus 16 independent candidates.

“Johor voters want a stable state government. The small parties cannot do so and their chances of winning even one or two seats are very slim.

“PH and PN, as opposition coalitions, will feel the effect of these small parties. There will be a split of votes and it will cost the opposition,” Akademi Nusantara senior fellow (strategic research) Azmi Hassan said.

Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) said newcomers need to be part of a coalition if they are looking to win.

He said that by going solo, their chances of winning were very small.

“PAS and Muda can win because they are part of PN and PH. Even hough Muda is not officially a coalition member, they still have an understanding.

“However, the same does not apply for Pejuang, Warisan, PBM and others. Going solo against PN, BN and PH is a tough task.

“BN is strong in Malay areas or Felda settlements, PH has solid support in urban areas, while PN has the Muhyiddin Yassin factor. These are advantages the smaller parties do not possess,” he said.

Newcomers have no base in Johor

Universiti Malaya’s Prof Hamidin Abd Hamid said the new parties lack strong grassroots and party infrastructure to carry out campaigns.

“Without grassroots support it is harder for them to win. They do not have a base in Johor or machinery to get their programmes running.

“PAS has a chance to win because it is an old party with strong support, and they are part of PN.

“If the new parties are part of PH or PN then they can also get the votes from their supporters. But to go alone, it will be an uphill task.”

He added that Muda, although a relatively popular new party, will find it hard to win as their target demographic is still in the minority.

“Muda is very popular especially with the youth, but can they win? It is still up for debate, because their voters aren’t the majority,” he said.

On the other hand, Universiti Sains Malaysia academic Prof Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid said the elections were about BN and PH, and newcomers were only out to brighten up democracy.

However, he did not rule out the possibility of Muda and PAS winning a seat or two.

“The new parties are just to make it merrier. It is all about BN and PH, not so much about even PN in my opinion.

“BN has strong support in rural areas, while PH is strong in urban areas. Muda can win the seats it is contesting given that PH voters are voting for them. Same goes to PAS,” he stressed. – March 1, 2022.