THE falling-out between Bersatu and Umno will not benefit Pakatan Harapan (PH) much, political observers said.

It is the Malay fence-sitters who will be affected the most by the open quarrel between Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin and Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, as both parties champion similar Malay-centric ideals, they said.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia political analyst Mazlan Ali said Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Barisan Nasional (BN) will be looking to control the Malay segment of votes in the Johor elections on March 12.

PH, on the other hand, still draws most of its support from the non-Malays, he said.

“The fight between Zahid and Muhyiddin will not be that big an advantage to PH, but it will affect Bersatu and Umno,” Mazlan told The Malaysian Insight.

He said many Malay voters will mostly find it difficult to switch their support to PH, which has suffered from attacks painting it as anti-Malay and as being controlled by DAP.

“When people cling to politics based on racial and religious ideology, it is difficult to change,” he said.

“If anything, it will be a few Malay voters who are sitting on the fence and fed up with the way the two leaders are behaving, who might look for alternatives. For PH, this will not be of much benefit.”

Despite being in government together, Umno and Bersatu have fallen out over several issues, and Muhyiddin and Zahid have been slinging mud at each other recently.

Muhyiddin claimed that Zahid came to him when he was prime minister and asked for help to settle the corruption charges against him.

Zahid, who is facing 47 charges of graft involving funds from a charity he started, Yayasan Akalbudi, has denied Muhyidin’s allegations.

Johor has 2.59 million voters, including 749,731 new voters following the implementation of Undi18 and automatic voter registration.

BN, PN and PH are the three major coalitions competing in the polls and have candidates in all 56 constituencies.

Johor voters did switch allegiance to PH in the 2018 general election, at both federal and state level, but the PH state government was short-lived and collapsed after the “Sheraton move” in 2020 that also toppled the PH federal government.

This was when Bersatu quit PH and allied itself with Umno, PAS, Sarawak parties and PKR defectors to form a new government.

With PH struggling to deal with voter disillusionment and with the opposition, as a whole, fragmented as newer opposition parties like Pejuang and Warisan refuse to collaborate with it in the Johor polls, the main fight for Malay voters will be between Umno and Bersatu.

“So it doesn’t look like PH will have an advantage when Zahid and Muhyiddin fight. Malay sentiment towards DAP, especially the rural Malays and in the Felda settlements, lean heavily towards the strong (anti-DAP) narrative,” Mazlan said.

“Any shift in support will happen between these two parties.

“The Malays who support PH are mostly voters residing outside the state; local support is not that strong.”

Malay mindset

Explaining the Malay voter mindset, Mazlan said there are three general worldviews that are centred on Malay rights, anti-corruption and Malay unity.

“Those who want a government they feel will protect Malay rights will choose Umno. Those who reject racial issues may support PH. Those who say they hate corruption will reject Umno and those who want the unity of the ummah will likely support PN (of which PAS is a member),” he said.

Johor Malays may also hold Muhyiddin in high regard as the former prime minister was also the state’s menteri besar previously, Mazlan said.

However, Johor is also Umno’s birthplace and sentiments for the grand old party run strong. 

Universiti Malaya political analyst Awang Azman Awang Pawi said Malay fence-sitters may be pushed either way because they are fed up with one party or the other, but will still cling to traditional Malay-centric worldview.

Hardcore supporters of Bersatu and Umno will not change, regardless the criticisms Muhyiddin and Zahid hurl at each other, he said.

“Politicians deliberately create crises so that their views get media attention and reach their audience,” he said. – February 27, 2022.