AFTER three state elections since the national polls in 2018, what’s clear is that the days of single-party rule in Malaysia are over, as are straight fights in elections.

The crowded field in the Johor elections is another reminder of this, and what takes place over the next two weeks may very well shape the next general election.

Besides its status as the second most developed and populous state next to Selangor, Johor’s ethnic composition and geography mirrors that of Peninsular Malaysia.

According to Census 2010, Johor has 3.35 million people (updated to 3.77 million in 2016) and is the seventh in terms of urbanisation at 71.9% after the Klang Valley, Penang and Malacca.

In terms of demographics, the state is 52% Malay, 30% Chinese and 6% Indian, and closely resembles the 2021 national statistics of 57.3% Malay, 22.9% Chinese and 6.6% Indian.

This will be the first state polls that will pit three major coalitions against each other: Barisan Nasional (BN), Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH).

To make things more interesting, BN and PN are partners at federal level and in three other states: Kedah, Perak and Sabah.

Also thrown into the mix are new parties Pejuang, Muda, Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM) and Warisan Sabah, making the Johor polls on March 12 a crowded field with multi-horse races guaranteed in every one of its 56 state seats.

Ahead of candidate nominations which will be filed today, this is how the battlefield looks:

BN, PN and PH

These three main coalitions have announced their candidates for the Johor polls in the last week.

BN has announced names for 56 seats while PN has named 56, and PH released the names of 50 candidates.

For PH, PKR will field 20 candidates, while Amanah and DAP will field 16 and 14 respectively. The latter two parties have decided not to contest four and two other seats respectively to make way for new party Muda.

For PN, Bersatu will contest 33 seats, with PAS and Gerakan standing for 15 and eight, respectively.

New parties

While the focus may be on the bigger coalitions, a lot of attention will inevitably fall on four new parties: Muda, Pejuang, Parti Bangsa Malaysia and Parti Warisan Sabah.

This is the first time Muda (seven seats) and PBM (four) are contesting in elections after their registrations were approved.

For Sabah-based Warisan, which launched on the peninsula in December, the Johor polls mark the first time it is contesting elections across the South China Sea, with six seats.

As for Pejuang, Johor will be Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s party’s biggest campaign by far, contesting 42 seats, since it fielded a candidate in the Slim by-election in 2020.

Shifting candidates and strategy

Half of 28 the seats up for grabs – 16 from PH, nine from BN and three from PN – will be defended by incumbents, signalling parties’ concerns about their candidates’ strengths in a crowded field.

Another four assemblymen will contest in different seats.

Two of them are from Bersatu: Solihan Badri (formerly Tenang) will move to party president Muhyiddin Yassin’s seat in Bukit Gambir and Chong Fatt Full (Pemanis) move to Tangkak.

Chong was among the PKR assemblymen who defected to Bersatu during the Sheraton Move in 2020.

On the BN side, rising Umno star Onn Hafiz Ghazi will move to Machap after PKR announced that it will be fielding former education minister Maszlee Malik in Layang-Layang.

PH will also see a swap as PKR has decided to move first-term Senggarang assemblyman Khairuddin Rahim to Rengit.

Hot seats and young candidates

All eyes will be on Benut, where incumbent and menteri besar Hasni Mohamad will stand for BN, and aim to defend his seat for a fourth term.

Although Hasni won easily in 2018, with a majority of 4,447 votes, he will be up against a PN candidate, Isa Abd Hamid, who this time will have the backing of Bersatu and PAS.

In the 2018 election, Bersatu and PAS were enemies, but now their combined voting will narrow the gap to Hasni.

Besides Hasni, the spotlight will also fall on four Johor MPs looking for seats in the state assembly.

Among them are Simpang Renggam MP Maszlee Malik (PKR) who will contest in Layang-Layang and former agriculture minister Salahuddin Ayub (Amanah), who will defend Simpang Jeram.

Another two federal lawmakers are Sri Gading MP and former deputy minister Shahruddin Md Salleh (Pejuang), who is eyeing the Machap seat, and Tebrau MP Steven Choong of Parti Bangsa Malaysia who is vying for the Puteri Wangsa seat.

The other interesting seat to watch out for is Perling where Johor DAP chief Liew Chin Tong will contest a state seat for the first time in his political career.

Liew, a former deputy defence minister, has been MP for Bukit Bendera and later Kluang.

The performance of Muda’s candidates will also be worthy of note, including lawyer-activist Lim Wei Jiet in Tenang, and Muda secretary general Amira Aisya Abd Aziz in Puteri Wangsa.

Notably, Muda and Pejuang decided to reveal the age of their candidates. From the information available so far, the average age of Pejuang candidates is 48, while for Muda, it is 26.

The youth vote is a buzzword in the Johor polls, as the election is the first time adults age 18 years old and above will be able to cast their ballot, after a recent change to the federal constitution. – February 26, 2022.