THE Johor elections on March 12 are a dress rehearsal for political parties to test their strength and alliances ahead of the 15th general election (GE15), analysts said. 

The outcome of the contest for 56 seats will be studied to make projections, evaluate their partnerships, and even to intensify calls for snap elections.

Political analyst Mazlan Ali called the Johor polls a “simulation” of a federal election for the politicians.

The Universiti Teknologi Malaysia academic said parties are fine-tuning the framework of the experimental link-ups they embarked upon in the November Malacca elections.

“Bersatu and PAS worked together in the Malacca polls and they will do so again in the Johor polls. It shows that Umno and PAS will no longer work together for GE15. Hence, the Johor polls will be a reflection of alignments in the general election,” he said of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Barisan Nasional (BN) coalitions.

Muda, meanwhile, is testing the waters with Pakatan Harapan (PH). Mazlan called this a “preview of future oppositional politics”.

Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s Pejuang may not be in the opposition’s “big tent” but Mazlan said there was still room for discussion on that.

These alignments will have costs and benefits for each party, which will grow clearer after the Johor polls, Mazlan added.

Low voter turnout will benefit BN

BN, Mazlan said, has a good chance of forming the state government, provided voter turnout is below 60%. 

This is because of the coalition’s traditional base of Malay supporters in the rural areas and on Felda settlements.

“If the voter turnout is low, Umno will secure a huge victory, perhaps even two-thirds. On the other hand, if voter turnout exceeds 80%, there’s a possibility that PH can win in mixed-urban constituencies. 

“This time for BN, however, there is a competition from PN, which will pull away some of the traditional Malay votes that usually go to Umno,” said Mazlan. 

Another political analyst Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani also argues that BN’s long record of governance lasting six decades at federal and state level, will be an important factor for voters who want stability in the government. 

“BN has a long track record. Despite being haunted by some issues, the track record matters more in their (voters’) eyes,” said the Universiti Utara Malaysia lecturer.

Awang Azman Awang Pawi at Universiti Malaya said the dissolution of Parliament will be hastened if BN wins by a large margin in Johor. 

“If BN gets a landslide victory of at least 37 out of 56 seats, I think there is no other possibility except for an immediate general election. 

“The outcome of Johor will provide a strong momentum for GE15 as BN will feel very confident that the situation has recovered enough for them to recapture Putrajaya,” said Awang Azman.

PH needs to win back Chinese voters

Besides needing a high voter turnout of 80%, the opposition must also hold on to the support of Chinese voters who mostly reject BN, said Mazlan.

And PH also needs to deal with the split Malay vote now that PN is in the fray.

“A problem for PH is that some of the Chinese votes would go to PN and BN component parties, as my observation indicates that this group’s support towards PH is no longer as solid as in GE14. There is some disappointment towards DAP throughout their 22-month stint as the federal government. 

“I also think the Johor electorate is different from Malacca’s. Johor folk seem to be more excited to go out and vote,” added Mazlan, who expects a 75% voter turnout in the Johor polls. 

Azizuddin, meanwhile, feels PH’s main challenge is its internal crisis, which is projecting an unstable image. This will erode their supporters’ confidence, he said.

He said PH risks repeating its tragedy in Malacca where it lost many of the seats it contested, especially without the support of younger voters.

“Young voters also have more options now.

“There is no certainty that past trends – where the young support the opposition – will apply in this state election. In Johor, there is the ‘Bangsa Johor’ (Johor pride) sentiment, which might alter such trends and this would benefit BN,” said Azizuddin.

PN struggling to remain relevant

PN, although a new coalition but comprising familiar parties, will try to leverage on its short stint in federal government to appear relevant to voters, said Awang Azman. 

But PN’s popularity is also waning, now that its chairman and Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin, is not prime minister.

“When the sitting prime minister is no longer from Bersatu, the party’s popularity is affected. Many have quit Bersatu, and several have retired from politics after finding that Umno won’t take them back. 

“This is an early sign that Bersatu is losing relevance,” Awang Azman said.

Mazlan said PN will count on Muhyiddin’s personal influence as a campaign tactic. Although he is no longer prime minister, there are still Malay voters in Johor who admire him.

“Don’t underestimate Muhyiddin’s popularity. At the very least, PN can split the Malay vote and squeeze out other parties who rely on the same support base,” said Mazlan.

PN may also try to attract support from those who had voted for PH when Bersatu was still part of it.

“Within PN are bits of PH. PN not only will try to defeat BN but also pull away votes from PH,” Mazlan said.

Overall, Johor will be a crowded field with Pejuang and newcomer Warisan throwing their hats into the ring; all these factors will impact PH’s share of the vote, he added.

Muda reliant on social media

Although fresh-faced Muda has its share of supporters who see the next generation as the country’s best hope for change, Azizuddin said the reality of election politics on the ground may give the young party a tough time in Johor.

To win elections requires cooperation with other parties and familiarity with voters, neither of which is Muda’s strength, he said.

“PH also does not seem to be completely behind Muda. Each has its agenda,” he said, referring to the breakdown of seat negotiations between Muda and PKR. Only Amanah and DAP agreed to give a total of six seats to Muda.

“Muda is also perceived to be hijacking PH’s plans. This is why the collaboration, which is not an official one, is tricky,” he said.

Mazlan had a more favourable view of Muda, which he said is adept at using social media to woo young voters.

“Muda’s advantage is that they know how to convince young people. They rely a lot on social media, and their acceptance there is quite high.

“Outside voters who come back to vote are usually PH supporters. When Muda works together with PH, they can persuade these voters to come out and vote,” he said.

Newcomers Pejuang and Warisan to falter

Mazlan predicted that Pejuang, which is fielding candidates in 42 seats, will falter in Johor.

For Pejuang and Warisan, he said the Johor polls is more about testing their strengths and voter support.

These parties do not have a core support base in Johor, he added.

“Pejuang chairman Dr Mahathir Mohamad is not popular in Johor. They might get some votes but it will be difficult to win any seats.”

It is the same for Warisan, he added, although the Sabah-based party might be able to attract protest votes from those who are disappointed with the major coalitions. 

Warisan will likely end up hurting PH and PN’s chances more than BN’s, Mazlan said.

Although the crowded Johor field may be confusing for voters, from the political parties’ point of view, it is more about finding out what can be used as leverage for GE15, said Awang Azman.

This is so for parties like Pejuang, Warisan and Muda, which are new and untested.

“This is an early test for potentially bigger collaborations during GE15. Those who struggle to win any seats will not be taken seriously by the dominant political parties in the future.

“And those that perform well in Johor will be sought after for collaboration by the weaker ones.” – February 22, 2022.