THE impending crisis in Ukraine and the potential fallout in the greater Indo-Pacific region are causing jitters to global order and stability, amid a backdrop of greater insecurity in the international political landscape. It certainly signals the return to the old high-intensity conflicts pillared on traditional threats, with states as the primary actors in charting the path and design of conflict management.

Ukraine is seen by many as the polarising impetus or the unfortunate scalp in navigating through the clashing ideologies, interests and claims of two conflicting sides, providing an unwelcoming return to the dark atmosphere of the Cold War. It is a hotly debated spectrum from both competing camps, whether this will be the ultimate test of United States’ endurance as the sole global superpower or signalling the rise of the rest led by China and a resurgent Russia. Already, the momentum has shifted in the favour of the Chinese and the Russians, with the crisis being seen as the highest show of force and power projection by both countries in sending the clearest message to Uncle Sam that they are here to stay and they will provide a sustaining and credible alternative to the dominance, grip and influence the Americans have enjoyed for decades.

Sensing internal American weakness and incapability to effectively project a unified and deterring measures that could significantly harm Moscow, with the returns on the Ukraine invasion overwhelmingly outweighing the costs over the long-term state survival and interests for the Kremlin, President Vladimir Putin has never been so influential and powerful than he is now. The shuttle diplomacy displayed by French President Emmanuel Macron in trying to fill the vacuum and leadership void in Europe in resolving the crisis is another slap in the face to Washington, seeing how fragmented and decaying grip and influence in providing alternative solutions other than disjointed deterrence threats and limited military options it is willing to risk.

Emboldened by the seemingly unstoppable momentum and capacities the Chinese enjoy over their rapid ascent in the global leadership of various critical fields, Beijing is leaving no stone unturned in tightening its grip on Taiwan and the South China Sea and in expanding its future strategic penetration into key vital chokepoints and entry points, notably the Arctic Sea, the Pacific and the greater Indo-Pacific region. Powered by an almost unhindered supply of hard capital and resources in fuelling this ambitious drive, Beijing has bolstered its strategic calculations with greater solidification of ties with Moscow, with the recent “no limits” friendship and ties derived from the meeting between Putin and China President Xi Jinping during the Beijing Winter Olympics. While both still tread carefully in navigating their bilateral ties with testy relationships dating back to the Cold War and still wary of potential risks, the need to halt US’ grip on global order and to project a stronger common front in challenging American aggression has become a strategic need. By reversing the paradigm and painting the Americans as the aggressors and themselves as the victims, with them being leaders of the developing world in standing up to unchecked American imperialism, the Russians and Chinese have arrived at a decisive stage of leading the next frontier of shaping the regional and global order.

With a united front in opposing American-led Western incursions in the affairs of Ukraine, Taiwan and Hong Kong, which are seen as inseparable parts of their national identity and pride with a non-negotiable stand on their sanctity and security, these remain the ultimate red lines the Chinese and the Russians have clearly drawn, where not an iota of violations will be tolerated with all hands on deck and all options on the table in securing these interests.

The West, led by the US, has not been sitting freely with the roaming ambitions of the two parties, scrambling to regain lost ground and striving to not lose the grip it held, albeit on meticulous terms. Although current prospects are not siding them, the long-term advantage and confidence abound. The flurry of diplomatic manoeuvres in the Pacific and Indo-Pacific, with the visit by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Australia to strengthen Quad readiness and to Pacific Islands, keen to thwart the worrying Chinese moves in gaining a foothold in these states as the entry point to their Pacific dream.

Although loosened and further weakened by the surge of first-cycle advantage held by Russia and China in their ascent and entry to the fray, the US realised that ultimately, the game is Washington’s to lose. Although Uncle Sam could in theory and in practice match and even outnumber the Chinese and the Russians in upping the ante financially and the sacrifices needed to reassert and to protect Western influence and the triumph of democracy, Washington realises that the long-term projection works in their favour. Both have been playing the waiting game, with China and Russia knowing they must be the more impatient parties, for a protracted and a prolonged competition with an established world superpower with entrenched values and system of open innovation and idealism with democratic conviction will bring about a long and slow defeat to autocracy, as history has proven.

Banking on civilisational legacy and present-day momentum of support and capacities will not last, as they realised, and the scramble to build a secure, sustainable and comprehensive system and tool of growth and influence has culminated in today’s increasing assertiveness of power projection, albeit at the expense of global soft power and support. The Americans, while wary and fearful of the fear-mongering of ultimately having to kowtow to the Chinese in the economic and military supremacy, have every reason not to and taking heart that the Western alliance and the increasing involvement of others pushed to the brink by Beijing and Moscow will have enough endurance, resources and willpower in winning the new Cold War. The foundation and frontrunner of this battle will not entirely lie in the impact of the Australian, United Kingdom and US defence alliance; Quad; the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and other core partnerships and showcase of military prowess of the US-led Western front, it will be based on the fundamental human-driven and value-propelled conviction of purpose and faith in freedom and sanctity of humanity.

Notwithstanding the outcome of the Ukrainian saga, it will certainly not signal the demise of the Western order or American dominance, nor will it symbolise the triumph of autocracy and the return of the grand Russian and Chinese revitalisation. It will just be a reminder that for all the challengers’ strategic calculation to solidify positions and gains, the gap and the game will be determined by the philosophical, ideological and value-based path chosen, not the hectares of land or sea conquered or the leverage gained from cyber operations nor the number of satellites circling the Earth. – February 15, 2022.

* Collins Chong Yew Keat reads The Malaysian Insight.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.