THE results of last year’s Sarawak and Malacca elections are likely to have boosted the morale of the ruling elite and emboldened calls for an early general election.

As a result, many expect a federal election to be held sooner rather than later. The Johor elections will be closely watched for potential new alliances and the shape of things to come in Putrajaya

The December Sarawak election results also offered a number of key insights into the ongoing shifts in Malaysian politics.

A coalition of former BN component members, Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) scored a landslide win in the elections. Although GPS left the BN coalition after the 2018 general election, it is on friendly terms with Umno.

Following the stunning wins in the Sarawak and Malacca elections, many BN supporters are anticipating the return of BN as the next federal government, with or without GPS support.

However, I argue that the political situations in East and West Malaysia are different and one cannot generalise.

Back in 2020, many had predicted a win for Parti Warisan Sabah (Warisan) and Pakatan Harapan (PH) in the Sabah elections.

After all, the polls were forced by the issues of “political frogs”, who caused the collapse of the state government, corruption, and unease over a “backdoor government”. If nothing else, these gave the incumbent government the moral high ground.

However, the results were a huge letdown. Warisan and PH lost the fight and only managed to hold on to their stronghold seats.

So how does one interpret GPS’ recent triumph in the Sarawak elections? 

Different political settings

The geographical and social structure of Sabah and Sarawak is highly relevant to the political situation of East Malaysia, which differentiates it from the political landscape of the peninsula.

Moreover, East Malaysia is also divided into two seemingly similar political structures and entities which are in truth quite different from each other: Sabah and Sarawak.

Both states share many similarities, such as a local – and vocal – striving for autonomy, family politics, and desire for infrastructure development. Yet, the political cultures of Sabah and Sarawak are quite distinct from one another.

Sarawak folk choose to be independent of Peninsular Malaysia or federal political relations and tend to be more interested in who is in charge of Sarawak.

After GPS announced the restructuring of political parties in Sarawak in 2018 and transformed into a separate entity from Barisan Nasional, we should be able to tell apart the different political ethos and operations at work.

In contrast, during the 2020 Sabah elections, the local parties still had close ties with the federal government or peninsula-based national parties.

It is worth pointing out the advantage of the federal ruling party swaying the local sentiments and therefore determining the results of the Sabah elections.

In fact, the constantly shifting allegiance of political parties and the prevailing political culture in the state, more often than not, reflect the political affiliation to which ruling party is in charge in the federal government.

Misreading PH’s electoral performance

Due to a lack of understanding about Sarawak politics, many observers in West Malaysia had badly misjudged Sarawak PH’s standing among the voters and expected the coalition to perform well in the state elections, to the extent it was anticipated that it would form the state government!

In fact, PH Sarawak did not win many seats. Even during the 2011 state election when DAP ran a high-spirited Ubah campaign, the number of seats it gained had only doubled from six seats in 2006 to 12 seats.

In addition to the three seats won by the PKR, the defunct predecessor Pakatan Rakyat coalition only commanded the strength of 15 seats.

Even with the best ever state poll result, they were still far short of the threshold of a simple majority (36 seats) to form a state government. PH momentum in Sarawak was clearly not the same as other states in the peninsula.  

On the contrary, the state election results can only show that the short stint of 22-month rule of PH federal government had failed to make an impression and therefore a lukewarm electoral campaign support for PH Sarawak.

How to read Sarawak results?

One should first understand that the GPS campaign in the Sarawak state election contained a strong local element with the slogan “Sarawak First”.

To a certain extent, the state elections showed the the voters’ preference for the former ruling parties.

The power struggles in Sabah and the peninsula had perhaps taught Sarawak people the importance of political stability.

Prior to the elections, GPS had declared that its relationship with the federal ruling party was purely cooperative.
 
This has boosted confidence of voters in the coalition as they could see their state government was able to assert its independence and impartiality when it came to the interests and affairs of the Sarawak.

Rationality of Sarawak voters

My research on the East Malaysian elections indicates that Sarawak folk show different preferences and voting patterns in the state and federal elections: for state seats, they will vote for local parties to maintain independence while for parliament seats, they will vote for the parties that tend to cooperate with the federal government.

Sarawak people feel these tactics provide checks and balances to ruling party in the state while protecting the interests of the state and the people in terms of the federal resources.

Of course, the differential political preference may have an origin in the staggered timing of Sarawak’s federal and state elections, giving voters sufficient time to observe the federal political situation before deciding which way they vote.

In comparison, voters in Peninsular Malaysia, especially those in urban areas, tend to have relatively clear-cut political inclination, especially urban voters.

The majority of urban voters believe that even if the opposition party has no chance to govern, they should vote for members of the opposition party, hoping that some of them get elected and play the role of “check and balance” towards the government of the day.

There are also voters who vote for opposition parties for the sake of opposition to a particular ruling party and not because they subscribe to the principles or philosophy of the party.

Peninsular Malaysian voters are less likely to be influenced by resource factors (i.e., another word for vote-buying): different regions and social cultural structures usually result in different voting intentions and considerations.

One must acknowledge that the East Malaysia states are more laggard economically, and many communities, especially in the interior, are vulnerable to great power disparity that has spawned decades of political dependency.

Sarawak voters know what they want

The state cabinet composition basically reflects the electoral outcome and representation considerations of Sarawak people (especially Chinese voters).

Among the 76 seats GPS bagged, Sarawak United People’s Party won 13, wresting back seats that had been held by the opposition for 10 years.

It can be interpreted that Chinese Sarawak folk vote with wisdom rather than emotion to to ensure there will be Chinese representation in the Sarawak cabinet after the election.

Sure enough, as they wished, Sarawak also once again ushered in a Chinese deputy chief minister.

All in all, Sarawak not only retains a strong local relevance, but also ensures that Sarawak maintains a strong political position, influence and status in the Federal Government.

This kind of political pride belongs to Sarawak alone. Therefore, the victory of GPS in the state election should be seen on its own merits, and it does not mean that any future coalition competing for federal power can rely on GPS to win in GE15.

One needs to be careful in inferring the results of GE15 by referencing the Sarawak’s election results. – February 8, 2022.

* Esther Sinirisan Chong is a member of Agora Society. She was born and raised in the Land Below the Wind. Her research interest lies in education and government policies, and the history and heritage of East Malaysia.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.