IF Barisan Nasional (BN) and Umno win big in the upcoming Johor polls, there will be a general election by September, said analysts.

“BN will be able to re-evaluate where it stands among voters if it wins big in the state elections, after losing in the general election in 2018,” said Associate Prof Awang Azman Awang Pawi.

The Universiti Malaya lecturer, however, said Putrajaya may postpone polls to next year if newly registered voters are cold towards BN.

On Saturday, Johor Menteri Besar Hasni Mohammad announced that the state assembly will be dissolved to pave way for snap polls after much speculation.

DAP and Umno hold the most seats in the state with 14 each, followed by Bersatu (11), PKR (7), Amanah (6), MIC (2) and PAS (1), totalling 55 after the death of Kempas assemblyman Osman Sapian on December 22.

Pakatan Harapan (PH) claimed 36 of the 56 state seats in 2018, while BN and PAS managed only 19 and one, respectively.

Following defections from Bersatu and PKR state assemblymen in 2020, BN paired up with Perikatan Nasional to rule Johor with a simple majority of 29 seats – which was reduced to 28 after Osman’s death.

Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar said BN’s huge success in Malacca has given the coalition the confidence to maintain its momentum in Johor.

“The opposition is fragmented and cannot mobilise its supporters under current conditions,” said the International Islamic University of Malaysia political science lecturer.

BN won 21 out of the 28 seats in the Malacca polls in November, regaining two-thirds majority in elections that saw minimal physical campaigning due to Covid-19.

Awang Azman said PH appears to be “overconfident” and not want to cater to other opposition parties, such as Muda, Pejuang and Warisan.

“This will cause the opposition to split the votes, making it impossible for it to win.”

A similar issue occurred in the recent Sarawak elections, when GPS won 76 out of the 82 seats.

However, Anwar Ibrahim yesterday said PH will rope in all opposition parties to contest in all 56 seats in the upcoming Johor polls.

This is to ensure BN and Umno will lose in all upcoming polls, starting with the ones in Johor, he added.

“A preliminary agreement has been made where we will open the space to rope in all opportunity forces and civil society to make sure there is a change,” said the opposition leader.

“It is not going to help if there is a hairline crack (in the opposition).”

But Tunku Mohar warned that the Johor polls is not just about getting a stable government, as claimed by the menteri besar.

“The BN state government is stable enough with Bersatu and PAS. Moreover, it faces no pressure from the opposition.

“Even if Bersatu withdraws support for the state government, the opposition is guaranteed to support the menteri besar.”

The Johor polls is basically an “Umno election”, he added.

“It shows just how weak Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob is, who, despite his position, cannot stop Johor Umno from dissolving the state assembly.” – January 25, 2022.