IN the UK, Covid-19 cases brought about by the Omicron variant have peaked which means the infection curve has flattened. Although daily infections are still in six digits, they have reduced by half.

This has prompted Prime Minister Boris Johnson to double down on Covid-19 protocols by lifting almost all remaining coronavirus restrictions.

In an announcement on January 20, Johnson said England’s current restrictions measures, known as Plan B, are to end from Thursday, with mandatory face coverings in public places and Covid passports both dropped.

The prime minister also said the government will immediately stop advising people to work from home. In his tweet, Johnson justified his action by saying:

“We were the first nation in the world to administer a vaccine, and one of the fastest in Europe to roll it out.

“We kept open this winter while others locked down. We are the first to emerge from Omicron because we delivered the fastest booster campaign in Europe.”

One response to his tweet: “I speak for all when I say we need to shut down everything for 3 months due to Covid, Boris.”

His lookalike, former US president Donald Trump, had already attempted the plan Johnson is now implementing with utter failure in 2020.

By contrast, Malaysia has taken a proactive approach on the part of the Health Ministry to prevent a surge in the Omicron variant before it even rears its ugly head, as is happening in Europe presently.

The firm measures in suspending umrah indefinitely, cracking down on fake vaccination certificates, and giving additional duties to travel agents to check and report on the health status of their pilgrims, are all preventative measures aimed at dealing with the possible surge of Covid-19 cases.

For now, the saving grace in Malaysia is that there was a reduced risk of hospitalisation from Omicron compared with Delta when it first made its appearance, along with a reduced risk of infection severity.

Almost 99% of Covid-19 patients infected with the Omicron variant are in categories 1 and 2 (no symptoms and mild symptoms), while about 98% of total daily cases of Covid-19 are also in categories 1 and 2.

However, as pointed out by Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin, the number of Covid-19 cases in Malaysia could rise to more than 30,000 a day by the end of March, if measures were not taken to control the spread of the Omicron, which include the temporary suspension of umrah travel to Saudi Arabia and the revision of quarantine standard operating procedures (SOP).

“If the basic reproduction number (R-naught or R0) of Covid-19 infections increases to 1.2, daily Covid-19 cases will increase to 10,000 per day, and if R0 is 1.6, we will see an increase in daily cases to more than 30,000,” Khairy said, citing the susceptible, exposed, infectious and removed (SEIR) model of daily observed and forecast Covid-19 cases prepared by his ministry.

So the key lies in managing the R0, which must be kept below 1. A figure above 1 means the number of new Covid-19 cases is rising.

To keep it at below 1 would entail introducing preventative measures such as suspending umrah, revising quarantine SOP and the introduction of SOP for celebrating any festivals with public holidays, such as Thaipusam or Chinese New Year.

As of January 18, the R0 for Malaysia is 0.99, not a comfortable figure as any lapses in preventative measures will bring it to 1 or more.

However, if we break it down by state, seven have an R0 of more than 1: Kuala Lumpur (R1.08), Negri Sembilan (R1.06), Malacca (R1.04), Kedah and Johor (R1.03 each), and Selangor and Sabah (R1.01 each)

The best-case scenario would be if every state could have an R0 of less than 0.9.

Just to underscore the importance of R0, let’s take the case of Singapore. On Sunday, with an R0 of 1.49, total daily case was 863.

On Monday, there was a big jump to R1.6 with total daily cases numbering 1,165.

Meanwhile in Malaysia on the same day, health director-general Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah was spot on when he said that, even though the Omicron variant is considered to be less severe than the Delta variant, the higher transmission rate could cause an increase in hospitalisation.

Hence, the Health Ministry has put several measures in place to prepare for the possibility of a surge in Covid-19 cases due to the Omicron variant.

“There may be an increase in patients that require a short stay in the hospital – particularly among high-risk groups such as senior citizens, individuals with comorbidity and children – which will pressure the healthcare system in the country.”

As such, Noor Hisham said the ministry has turned district hospitals into hybrid hospitals to treat Category 1, 2 and 3 patients.

While patients in Category 4 and 5 will be referred to specialist hospitals, stable cases will be isolated at home, monitored by Covid-19 Assessment Centres (CAC) till the isolation period ends.

Moreover, patients will be treated with identified antiviral medicine at early stage at CAC and Covid-19 quarantine and treatment centres.

Noor Hisham also stressed that the whole-of-government, whole-of-society approach is vital in ensuring there is no surge in Covid-19 cases caused by new variant.

“Hence, continue to adopt and strengthen self-control, continue to comply with the SOPs and get vaccinated so that Covid-19 cases can be under control in the country,” he added.

Meanwhile through his tweet, he gave rays of hope that this year Hari Raya celebrations might just be different from the last two years if only the public continues to get booster jab as protection for themselves and their family.

As Hari Raya is more than three months away, there is hope that it could be different this time around if preparations for a relatively stable Covid situation are made now by consistently observing SOP, getting a booster jab, and making the R0 as low as possible, say 0.8 or less.

Social visits were not allowed during the last two years of Aidilfitri celebrations. – January 21, 2022.

* Jamari Mohtar is the editor of Let’s Talk!, a newsletter on current affairs.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.