WHEN 1.21 million voters cast their votes in the Sarawak polls on Saturday, it will not be about a change of regime, but a referendum on the performance of Chief Minister Abang Johari Abang Openg, said political analyst James Chin.

He said contrary to popular belief, the upcoming polls do not seek to change the state government.

“This is a referendum on Abang Johari’s performance as chief minister,” he said, adding that Sarawak folk will instead be submitting “report cards” on the leader’s key performance indicators.

Chin – and other experts such as Arnold Puyok of Universiti Malaysia Sarawak and Ibrahim Suffian of Merdeka Centre – said Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), led by Abang Johari, will without a doubt win in the polls.

But the question is how well will he win, said the University of Tasmania Asian Studies professor.

Abang Johari became chief minister after his predecessor, Adenan Satem, died in office on January 11, 2017.

Adenan had led the coalition, then known as the Sarawak Barisan Nasional, to a stunning landslide victory in the state elections in 2016, winning 72 of the 82 seats on the back of state nationalist issues.

DAP, which had boasted that it will win more than 12 seats, lost five seats in the “tsunami”.

Sarawak Barisan Nasional has four components – Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), Parti Rakyat Sarawak, Sarawak United Peoples’ Party and Progressive Democratic Party.

It left BN following the latter’s defeat in the 14th general election in 2018 and rebranded itself as GPS.

Chin said everyone is wondering whether Abang Johari can repeat Adenan’s feat and win 72 seats or more, and “how close can he get to doing that”.

Puyok said his study shows that GPS can win only 54 to 55 seats, but Chin said Abang Johari cannot afford to bag less than 60 seats.

“If he bags less than 60, then his job is at risk. People think that PBB is united, very solid, but if he does not perform, then the knives will come out.”

Chin said the election will also be a referendum on whether the GPS rebranding is a success.

The polls will reveal whether rural voters have accepted the change, he added.

“They have ditched the dacing (weighing scale) symbol, (which was) the gold standard in rural areas.”

He said rural folk may confuse GPS’ hornbill logo with pro-independence Parti Bumi Kenyalang’s logo.

He said it is a question of whether the chief minister can package the coalition “into this hornbill bird and get away with their rebranding successfully”. – December 16, 2021.