IN 2008, a political novice who spent 10 years seeking her father’s freedom pulled off a giant feat and defeated a Barisan Nasional minister to wrest the Lembah Pantai seat.

PKR vice-president Nurul Izzah Anwar, dubbed the “giant slayer”, defeated Umno Wanita head and minister Shahrizat Abdul Jalil by 2,895 votes in the 12th general election.

At GE13 in 2013, the eldest child of jailed opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim defeated federal territories minister Raja Nong Chik Zainal Abidin albeit by a reduced majority of 1,847 votes.

But now, many are asking if PKR and Pakatan Harapan are able to retain the hot seat at the next elections following the Election Commission’s re-delineation exercise and the likelihood of a three-cornered fight.

Based on a recent simulation using voting patterns in previous elections, social media analytics outfit Politweet placed Lembah Pantai as among 10 opposition seats that could be wrested back by BN in GE14.

In the two previous polls, PKR had the help of PAS to face BN’s Shahrizat in 2008 and Raja Nong Chik in 2013.

But in GE14, PKR can expect a three-cornered fight now that PAS is no longer an ally and has declared its intentions to contest the federal seat.

The re-delineation exercise plus the addition of voters to Lembah Pantai in recent years will give BN the advantage.

Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE) chief executive Professor Dr Mohammad Redzuan Othman said BN always wins big in an election that follows a re-delineation exercise.

“But because BN does not enjoy a two-thirds majority (in Parliament), it cannot add more seats.

“So, it will do whatever it can to maximise its advantage,” Redzuan told The Malaysian Insight.

Movement of voters

The former Universiti Malaya’s Centre for Democracy and Elections (UMcedel) director cites the 2013 elections as an example.

In GE13, although more Malay voters were added in Lembah Pantai, BN still lost because a number of Chinese voters were not shifted out of the constituency.

“Let’s look at Lembah Pantai. In the last elections, the BN candidate, Raja Nong Chik, was pretty confident of victory. Why? It’s because at that time, more Malay voters were added to the area.

“BN’s only mistake was not to move out Chinese voters from Lembah Pantai. So, although there were more Malay voters, it was not enough to win. But if you shift out the Chinese voters, add one and minus one, then BN will win,” said the Universiti Selangor (Unisel) vice-chancellor.

In 2008, the number of voters in Lembah Pantai was 56,650 but in 2013, it increased to 72,396.

Malay daily Berita Harian recently reported that the Federal Territory registered the highest number of new voters with a 64% increase for GE14.

In Lembah Pantai, the Malay daily said, there was an increase of 9.8% compared with 2013.

If the new electoral boundaries get Parliament’s nod, BN will have an edge in Lembah Pantai as Nurul Izzah defeated Raja Nong Chik by only a slim margin, Redzuan said.

“A portion of Chinese voters have been moved to Seputeh, where DAP will gain a super majority.

“Lembah Pantai will now include Bukit Aman (federal police headquarters). With this move, the voter profile will change drastically.”

Nurul Izzah, who is also PKR election director, is aware of the move to add voters in her constituency.

“I received information that Umno has been conducting the mass movement of voters to the areas surrounding Lembah Pantai since 2013.

“For instance, Umno members from Kepong, Seputeh and Segambut (are moved). The biggest number is Seputeh. At the end, nearly 30% of the fence-sitters’ votes will be diluted.

“I am constantly reminding supporters to go out and vote to defeat the new votes brought in by Umno. If youngsters stay away, it will be a disaster for Pakatan Harapan.”

Nurul Izzah is referring to the #UndiRosak campaign to deter young people from voting at GE14. 

PKR’s only weapon against the odds brought by the re-delineation exercise and a three-cornered fight is the hope that voters fed-up with their economic and cost of living struggles will chose a candidate who will fight for a clean government, Nurul Izzah said.

“It’s clear that GE14 will be a battle between PH and BN. I’m sure the people know this and will vote out those who want to preserve a kleptocratic government.”

Raja Nong Chik’s confidence

Raja Nong Chik is likely to contest the Lembah Pantai seat again at GE14 and rates his chances of wresting the seat as good.

“However, the sentiment towards BN at the national level will influence the voting pattern in Lembah Pantai. There will be repercussions here if the national mood against BN sours,” said Raja Nong Chik.

But the Lembah Pantai Umno division chief remains confident, citing Nurul Izzah’s poor service record in the area.

He acknowledges that urban voters in Lembah Pantai are less dependent on an MP.

“If Lembah Pantai folk are looking for services, they would have voted me because I am always in the area,” Raja Nong Chik told The Malaysian Insight.

Nurul Izzah said even if the re-delineation goes through, she believes a majority of voters will still support PH.

“Lembah Pantai voters have access to information on the scandals surrounding BN and are desperate to see a change of government.

“In fact, many who meet me say before this, they did not have the courage to show their support for the opposition openly.”

She also dismissed rumours that PKR communication director Fahmi Fadzil will replace her in Lembah Pantai.

“As the incumbent, I will remain in Lembah Pantai.

“As long as the elections are free and fair, I am certain we will retain the seat.

“But if my party directs me to move elsewhere, I will follow the instructions.” – February 1, 2018.