THE Malacca elections today is expected to be a tight race, making it difficult to predict which political pact can form the new state government, political analysts said.

All three major coalitions – Barisan Nasional (BN), Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH) – are contesting in all 28 state seats, making all seats multi-cornered fights, with the addition of independents and candidates from two smaller parties.

The analysts told The Malaysian Insight that it was a possibility that the winning coalition would need to cobble together support from other parties to set up the government.

International Islamic University of Malaysia’s Dr Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar said there was a possibility for a hung assembly in Malacca.

“A unity government, therefore, becomes a possibility.

“It has been a difficult task to campaign as parties and candidates strictly followed the rules set by the Election Commission and Health Ministry,” he said.

Yesterday, pollster Ilham Centre said, based on their surveys, BN could comfortably win 11 seats and PH could win seven in the polls today.

Fifteen seats are needed to form a simple majority in the Malacca state government.

The pollster said that if BN could capture another four seats, it would have the simple majority needed to form the state government.

The four are among 10 seats whose outcome is too close to call.

Ilham Centre also said that PH could win under two circumstances: if voter turnout is more than 80% or if PN breaks BN’s Malay votes.

“If these two scenarios do not happen, BN will be the winner in Malacca.”

Tunku Mohar agreed, and said that it would be too close to call with the split seats.

“It’s too close to call. I have a feeling that Umno and DAP will retain the seats they won the last time.

“The rest depends on how PN will split the votes and spoil the results. That said, I think PN will find it tough to win even a single seat.”

He added that it has been an uphill task for the parties to reach out to the voters. 

“However, they (the parties) have been creative in working around the restrictions.

“Nevertheless, the campaigns may not reach the targeted voters. Within the limitations, I think the parties did their best to reach out to the voters. BN definitely has the advantage on mainstream media.”

Tunku Mohar also believed there could be low voter turnout today.

This is could be attributed to campaign messages not reaching voters and also due to anger that elections were being held during the pandemic, he added.

Good chance for Umno

University of Tasmania political analyst Prof James Chin believes the chances of Umno and Bersatu forming a pact is least likely.

He cited their previous strained relationship, and highlighted that there could be squabbles over the chief minister’s position if the two join hands at the state level.

“It is highly unlikely that Umno and Bersatu (will form the unity government) because they will fight (over) who is going to be the chief minister,” Chin said.

In the Sabah state elections last year, there was some friction between the two Malay parties after PN named Hajiji Noor as the chief minister instead of BN’s Bung Moktar Radin.

Chin said there was a better chance for nemeses the Umno-led BN and PH to work together as a pact in Malacca.

“There is a bigger possibility of PH plus Umno, given that they can work at the state level,” he said.

Besides this, Chin said that Umno’s success in the polls tomorrow should be credited to Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and former party president and current BN advisor Najib Razak for their roles, instead of Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob.

“They have sort of led the charge in Malacca and they will be the biggest winners if Umno does well,” he said.

Oh Ei Sun, senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said it was difficult to gauge how well all the parties and candidates had managed to reach out to the voters.

“As the campaigning is kept from being physical and largely confined online, it is difficult to gauge the voters’ reactions to the various coalitions’ outreach.”

Despite the setbacks, Oh believed that Umno should “emerge as the largest winner”.

“But whether it will win an outright majority to form the government alone remains to be seen.”

PH won the state in the last general election but the government collapsed in 2020 following defections that allowed an Umno-led government to take over.

BN is contesting all 28 seats up for grabs in the election with Umno vying for 20, MCA seven and MIC one.

As for PH, PKR has fielded candidates in 11 seats, Amanah nine and DAP eight.

Meanwhile, PN is also contesting in all 28 seats in Malacca. Bersatu will contest 15 seats, PAS eight and Gerakan five. – November 20, 2021.