THE open conflict between Umno and Bersatu in the Malacca elections has put Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob in a corner, observers said.

They said Ismail was unable to stop Umno and Bersatu from going against each other in Malacca.

While Umno and Bersatu are uneasy allies at the federal level, they are openly locking horns in Malacca.

Bersatu-led Perikatan Nasional, Umno-dominated Barisan Nasional and PKR-headed Pakatan Harapan will meet in all the 28 seats.

Malacca will go to the polls on November 20 and campaigning is under way with strict Covid-19 standard operating procedures (SOPs) in place.

Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti of Malaya told The Malaysian Insight both Umno and Bersatu were eager to prove their relevance.

“Ismail Sabri is not able to stop them going head to head even if he wanted to. The bad blood between the two is too deep.

“However, if the three-cornered fights give advantage to Pakatan Harapan, the two parties may seek to compromise ahead of the 15th general election.

“But if Umno or PN wins, they will carry on contesting against each other in the next election,” he said.

Awang Azman said although Ismail may be in trouble, his government could stay intact at least until the elections.

“Even if Bersatu pulls out, PH is there because of the memorandum of understanding it signed with the government.”

Dr Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs said Ismail has done to keep his government in power epitomised the height of political opportunism.

“He has not only cobbled together a federal ruling coalition with the major component parties openly despising and contesting against each other, but has also roped in the opposition for support,” he said.

“It remains to be seen if the rift between Umno and Bersatu – the lattter supported by PAS – would split the Malay vote enough to once again give PH the advantage in the general election “

Oh, however, believed there would be no trouble in the federal government as predicted by Awang Azman.

“I think for the sake of maintaining a so-called Malay-Muslim government, they will still put up a semblance of support for this government, at least until the next general election,” he added.

Prof James Chin of Tasmania University said the outcome of the Malacca elections would determine the stability of the federal government.

“If they lose, Ismail Sabri will be under tremendous pressure. It is hard to gauge the situation now because of the restrictions; we cannot see the reaction of voters.

“They need voters to come out and vote. For now I can only see DAP gaining the upper hand and winning at least five to six seats,” he said.

Badrul Hisham Ismail of Iman Research said the Malacca polls were Ismail’s litmus test, saying Umno will not suffer a backlash if it wins Malacca.

“As the biggest party, a win in Malacca will only strengthen its position.

“This is a test of Ismail Sabri’s leadership as PM. Whether he will be able to strengthen or weaken his position will be known after the elections.”

No trouble for Umno

Umno leaders are confident the backlash will be minimal whatever the outcome will be after the polls.

Umno Veterans Club secretary Mustapa Yaakub said the relationship between Umno and Bersatu in Putrajaya is not an issue.

“At the federal level, there is already an understanding between PN and BN. Whatever the result in Malacca will be a state issue that will not impact Putrajaya where Umno is the head of the coalition,” he added.

Lokman Adam, a former Umno Supreme Council member, agreed.

“I don’t think there will be any effect on us at Putrajaya. Even if there is, it will be minimal.”

Lokman, who had just been admitted back into Umno after being sacked, said Umno will win in Malacca while predicting a heavy loss for PN.

“They will not win a single seat because of the multi-cornered fights. The advantage is to Umno or PH,” he said.

In the 2018 election, PH won 15 seats in Malacca and Barisan Nasional, 13.

The PH state government, however, collapsed after DAP’s Pengkalan Batu representative Norhizam Hassan Baktee and PKR’s Rembia assemblyman Muhammad Jailani Khamis defected.

Norhizam was again one of the four assemblymen who caused the Malacca government to collapse after declaring a loss of confidence in chief minister Sulaiman Md Ali.

The other three were former chief minister Idris Haron, Noor Effandi Ahmad and Nor Azman Hassan. – November 13, 2021.