MALAY parties will be working hard to win big in the coming Malacca polls as it will give them a strong head start in the next general election, analysts said.

They said the state polls on November 20 will be a testing ground for these parties on their progress in GE15.

Apart from the two big Malay parties Umno and Bersatu, the analysts also included multi-racial Parti Keadilan Rakyat into the mix, saying that all three parties needed to win handsomely to lay a marker for GE15.

Professor of Asian studies at Tasmania University Dr James Chin said the Malacca polls is not a proxy battle but more of which of the three will be the major or dominant Malay party in GE15.

“So it is a fight for the soul of Umno; and whether Najib Razak (former prime minister) and Ahmad Zahid Hamidi (Umno president) can make a big comeback if they do very well in Malacca.

“For example, if Umno wins Malacca, then it is quite clear that the party is on the way up. It will also mean that Bersatu is on the way down,” he said.

In the elections, Bersatu-led Perikatan Nasional, Umno-dominated Barisan Nasional and PKR-led Pakatan Harapan will go head-to-head in all the 28 seats.

Chin said it will be a big fight between Bersatu and Umno – both uneasy allies at the federal level but rivals in Malacca.  

However, he said a PH victory will be a major boost for PKR president Anwar Ibrahim.

“He (Anwar) has done badly in the last two years…forever prime minister-in-waiting. So he also needs to do well here to push the momentum into the Sarawak (elections) and then towards the general elections.”

Chin also said there are really not many differences between the way the three parties conduct their campaigning.

“The Bersatu and Umno campaigns are really about trying to gather the same supporters they had in 2018 and trying to convince voters they are still the major Malay party.

“But the stakes are high for Bersatu. If they do badly in the polls, the Malay sentiment may be that they do not stand a chance in GE15.”

However, he said Umno will survive regardless of the polls outcome.

As for PKR, Chin said it has been selling the same old narrative – that its 2018 elections victory was stolen from them in 2020 through the Sheraton Move.

“Basically they have been telling the people they are the best multiracial party and should be given the chance to serve the full term.”

Chin, however, said the Malay voters seem to have given up on Anwar, Najib and Muhyiddin Yassin.

“The Malay voters can see that the country’s future is headed in the wrong direction in most aspects, such as education, religious issues and the rise of political Islam.

“They are fearful for the future of the country. The Malay youths are worried about the economic future,” he said.

Swing is with Pakatan

Mazlan Ali, a political analyst at Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, meanwhile, said PH will have a better chance in three-cornered fights as Malay voters are split.

“Some are with Umno and some with the PN. Between 15-20% of Malay voters will accept PH.

“Almost 80% of voters will support PH as their policies are better than BN.

“The voters know that PH policies are more transparent and there is less corruption,” Mazlan said.

He said Bersatu does not have much support while its ally PAS is not strong in Malacca.

“It is very difficult for PN in this election. Also, 20% of voters are first-time voters who have more access to social media.

“Bersatu’s chances are very slim and PAS is just not strong.

“The fight is very tight between PH and BN. Both stand to win between 10 and 15 seats each,” he said.

Mazlan added that it is possible that no party will get a majority in Malacca, ending with them needing to cooperate with one another.

Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said the fragmentation of the political landscape has landed the parties in this situation.

“Each of them (Najib, Muhyiddin, Anwar) are not exactly fighting off one another as trying to advance their respective politically related goals: to get off legal troubles, to prolong a shortened premiership, and to become premier.

“Well, it (Malacca elections) provides a testing ground for their respective self-proclaimed leadership credentials.”

He added that if they cannot win Malacca for their respective coalition, it will  cast a huge shadow over their prospects in the coming general election.

“As this is a non-physical campaigning period, it does not quite enable them to exhibit their similarities and differences in campaigning style, beyond limited and excused incursions.”

The Malacca polls are on November 20. – November 13, 2021.