THE Malacca elections could determine the more dominant Malay party, as Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN) takes on the Bersatu-PAS-powered Perikatan Nasional (PN) on November 20, analysts said. 

They said voter sentiments and three-cornered fights will be decisive factors in whether Umno or Bersatu – rivals yet uneasy partners at federal level – wins this proxy war. 

They added that the state polls will also be an opportunity to test the people’s mood following a prolonged political impasse after the last general election and the ensuing defections. 

Tasmania University’s professor of Asian studies Dr James Chin said Malacca polls will be the testing ground for the big fight between Umno and Bersatu. 

“(Bersatu president) Muhyiddin Yassin has announced that PN will contest in 28 seats.  

“He is trying to show that PN is still the government in control, although everyone understands the current government is an Umno-plus government,” he told The Malaysian Insight. 

Chin said both Bersatu and Umno would be going into the state polls wanting to prove they are more dominant. 

“Before the 14th general election there was one dominant Malay party (Umno). However, there are two now (Bersatu and Umno). This will be resolved in the next general election, but now Malacca will be used as an example on the direction the wind blows.” 

Last week, PN chairman Muhyiddin said the pact will contest all 28 seats in the Malacca elections next month, paving the way for three-cornered fights.  

He said this was because Umno had said it would go alone for the state elections. 

Chin said if BN and PN can’t come to an agreement to work together in Malacca, then there will be multi-cornered fights, and the big losers will be PAS, who will be squeezed out.  

“So, it is basically a fight between Umno and Bersatu. If Pakatan Harapan (PH) play their cards right then they might be able to do well.  

“Unfortunately PH is also in controversy because DAP is against the four former assemblymen who defected.” 

Meanwhile, Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said the scenario in Malacca was almost the same as it was during the last elections – only that this time Bersatu was in a pact with PAS in facing Umno-BN and PH. 

“So the three-cornered clashes are focused on the BN, PH and PN blocs.  

“Small parties and independent candidates can only afford to enliven the elections, but it is difficult to win. 

“The real match is more focused on the three main political coalitions. This model is similar to the clash in the last general election. The difference this time is Bersatu partnering with PAS by forming a new political coalition.” 

He said the polls will test the real “mood” of the people after the prolonged political crisis, whether at the state or national level. 

“This political experimentation will see to what extent the people’s views are in the form of votes. 

“They are fed up with the power struggle among politicians and party hopping until they have to go out and vote again. This, just when there are no more lockdowns and the country is in the recovery phase.”  

He added that this situation will greatly affect the current sentiments and emotions of voters. 

“Concerns for safety and health are paramount. It is feared this will affect the turnout in the polls.”

Advantage Umno

International Islamic University of Malaysia’s Dr Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar said that Umno-BN may have a slight advantage in three-cornered fights.

“In three-cornered fights, parties that have strong grassroots have better chances of winning.  

“However, voters would have a tough choice in voting candidates from BN and PN, because ‘ideologically’ they are the same. There’s a possibility of a vote split between the two. 

“The assumption is that Umno’s votes will remain but Bersatu’s votes may go back to Umno.” 

He said Bersatu will lose some votes if it goes against Umno and PH. 

“PH’s vote bank, if it remains the same, may not be enough to win a majority of the seats, assuming that some of their support come from Bersatu’s supporters.” 

As for the slim-majority seats, Tunku Mohar said there will be realignment considering the changing coalitions.  

“It remains unclear how strong Bersatu’s grassroots are, but compared to Umno and PH, it’s probably the weakest. 

“Amanah has a slim chance to stay relevant because the former chief minister has quite a strong following among PH voters, and DAP has close ties with it.” 

He believes that in Malacca, the two strongest parties are Umno and DAP.  

“However, there are only four Chinese-majority seats and one mixed constituency in Malacca.  

“Therefore, there aren’t many constituencies that DAP could win in the state.” 

Senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, Dr Oh Ei Sun said that at this point, PN was still posturing in BN-PN seat allocation talks by boasting about contesting in all seats. 

He said this was mainly to counter BN’s seeming refusal to yield any seat to PN.  

“They could always come to a seat allocation solution like in Sabah, where the Umno-Bersatu combination went on to win the elections. 

“PN must be clear about its slim chances in three-cornered fights. In fact, they would be lucky if they get to keep their deposits.” 

He said that in three-cornered fights, Umno (but not other BN component parties) or PH will likely emerge victorious.

“PN is essentially threatening to be a spoiler for Umno, detracting some Umno votes especially in those slim-majority constituencies, should PN not get its way in being allocated some seats to contest.” 

The Election Commission has set November 8 for nomination, November 16 for early voting and November 20 for polling. 

The Malacca legislative assembly was dissolved on October 4 after four assemblymen withdrew their support for Chief Minister Sulaiman Md Ali. 

The four are Idris Haron (Sg Udang), Nor Azman Hassan (Pantai Kundor), Norhizam Hassan Baktee (Pengkalan Batu) and Noor Effandi Ahmad (Telok Mas). – October 26, 2021.