THE Muafakat Nasional (MN) alliance may have taken a hit with PAS choosing to side with Bersatu instead of its partner Umno for now, but it is far from dead, analysts said.

Though the relationship between the two parties was cool at the moment, some analysts said they could yet work together in the general election. Others, however, said the partnership was dead in the water or that the two parties would cooperate only in certain constituencies at the polls.

Disaffection saw the second anniversary of the Malay-Muslim pact come and go on September 14 without fanfare.

“The fracture in Umno and PAS’ relationship is due to several factors, but it started when Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi signed a letter pledging support for PKR president Anwar Ibrahim,” Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar told The Malaysian Insight.

It steadily worsened as the two parties clashed in the Sabah elections, during the chief minister crisis in Perak, and when Umno withdrew support for then prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin, he said.

“Right now MN is a body without a soul but there are still people in Umno like Tajuddin Abdul Rahman and Mohamad Hasan, and the PAS ustaz council, who want the link-up between the two parties to work.

“MN is relevant in the scheme of a Malay, Islamic government in GE15,” he said.

Hisommudin said the question of continued cooperation was contingent on who became the next Umno president.

“If Ismail Sabri Yaakob becomes the party president in the upcoming party elections, the MN alliance will be better accepted among Umno members.

“Ismail is different from Zahid, who doesn’t have a good working relationship with Abdul Hadi Awang.

“If (Ismail Sabri) becomes president, I expect that the Malay parties will unite in GE15.”

When Zahid along with 14 other Umno members withdrew support for Muhyiddin, PAS did not go along with the plan. Nor did Ismail and his faction.

Ultimately, Muhyiddin resigned due to a loss of majority and Ismail was installed as the ninth prime minister. PAS now has eight seats in the cabinet.

Umno and PAS formalised the MN pact on September 14, 2019, with the aim of taking down the Pakatan Harapan government.

United against Bersatu

Sudden rise to power could also be a reason the relationship between the two parties is now lukewarm, said International Islamic University of Malaysia’s Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar.

Now that PH was ousted, MN was clearly at loose ends, he said.

And even though PAS had cosied up with Bersatu, it did not mean the Islamist party would not go running back to Umno come GE15, he added.

“It (MN) might not be dead yet. PAS is actually a lot more politically savvy than critics realise. It’ll side with the party that can give it higher returns.

“Therefore, we can’t rule out that PAS will realign itself with Umno if it sees that’s where the money is next GE,” he said.

Despite the fact that Umno could perceive PAS’ improved ties with Bersatu as a betrayal, Tunku Mohar said the Malay nationalist party would continue working with PAS.

“Umno’s main rival is Bersatu. If it can use PAS to inflict greater pain on Bersatu, it’ll do that. That is why, I think, Umno has yet to strongly condemn PAS for drawing closer to Bersatu.”

Selective cooperation

Universiti Malaya’s Awang Azman Awang Pawi was less optimistic that things would two parties will go back to fully working with each other.

“I think in GE15 Umno and PAS’ cooperation will only extend to certain areas and that it is also dependent on the personal relationship between the two parties in that area.

“In Terengganu for example, it will be hard for the both of them to work together as they both want to win the state,” he said.

MN’s second anniversary earlier this week was also not celebrated, showing the hidden problems between PAS and Umno, he added

“It (MN) is also almost dead without a trace in the current political climate.”

Earlier this month, PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man said the party leaders were meeting online to boost relations, adding an official meeting would soon take place. – September 18, 2021.